How many points is a fumble worth?

Philip Rivers has been one of the best QBs in the NFL this year.

The Chargers had the game won last Monday night. If Philip Rivers doesn’t choke and inexplicably drop a snap, they win. Period. Instead, they lost in overtime.

The key question we should be asking, then, is what would the line for Sunday’s Week 9 game against the Packers have been if the Chargers won in Week8? Luckily, we have an answer for that.

At the Las Vegas Hilton, the Packers were available at -3.5 last Tuesday. Now, they are -6. That’s because people watched the Monday night game, watched the Chargers choke and now want to bet against them. That’s the kind of reactionary, short-sighted strategy that is best avoided.

If the Chargers had won that game — as they essentially did, the line probably would have held at Packers -3.5 or maybe even -3. So now, thanks to a fluky fumble, we can grab three extra points on the Chargers. It’s like stealing points.


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