NFL totals bounce back to the mean

After five weeks of the NFL season, we noted that overs were hitting at a ridiculous 63.16 rate. They were 48-26, for a $1,940 profit if you bet $100 on all overs for the first five weeks. In that same blog, we predicted that playing the under moving forward would be the profitable play.

That’s because the oddsmakers — and bettors — bounce quickly to trends. Once we saw how teams throw to win now, how defenses can’t hit receivers over the middle, how the rules are set up to enhance scoring, the totals started to go up. And games have started to come under the total.

Since Week 5, the under has hit 37 times while the over has hit 17 times. Yes, the under has been even hotter than the over was, hitting at 68.51 percent. If you bet on all unders since Week 5, you’d be up $1,830 in just four weeks. Not bad.

So now what? Well, now we’re back to the average. On the season, NFL games have gone over 65 times and under 63 times. When the dust settles at the end of the year, it will be right around that 50/50 mark. There’s no more edge to see here.


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