Jobless claims data suggests labor market strength
The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell more than expected last week, pointing to resilience in the labor market despite belt-tightening by Washington.
The improving job market tone is helping to prop up housing, with rising home prices keeping domestic consumption supported. But tighter fiscal policy as the government tries to slash its bloated budget deficit is dampening factory activity.
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 23,000 to a seasonally adjusted 340,000 last week, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Economist had expected claims to fall to 345,000.
The drop unwound most of the prior week’s jump and suggested employers were not laying off workers in response to fiscal austerity, especially the $85 billion in across-the-board government spending cuts.
“The evidence from jobless claims suggests that layoffs have slowed, which hints at faster net job creation,” said John Ryding, chief economist at RDQ Economics in New York.
The labor market is being closely watched by the Federal Reserve as debate heats up over the future of its expansive monetary stimulus.
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke told lawmakers that a decision to scale back the $85 billion in bonds the U.S. central bank is buying each month could come at one of its “next few meetings” if the economy appeared set to maintain momentum.
Economists believe that decision could come as early as the September meeting.
A separate report from the Commerce Department showed new single family home sales rose 2.3 percent last month to a 454,000-unit pace. The median sales price for a new home jumped 14.9 percent from a year ago to a record $271,600.
“We have seen some momentum in the housing market. The improving sales are a very broad and powerful positive effect for the U.S. economy,” said Robert Dye, chief economist at Comerica in Dallas.
Data on Wednesday showed home resales increased in April to their highest level in nearly 3-1/2 years, with the median price for a previously owned house the highest since August 2008.
Relative strength in the housing market is helping to mitigate some of the drag from higher taxes and deep government spending cuts, which has been evident in manufacturing data.
In a separate report, financial data firm Markit said its preliminary Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index fell to a seven-month low of 51.9 in May from 52.1 in April. A reading above 50 indicates expansion.
“Slower growth could be linked to a combination of fiscal drag hurting demand at home while at the same time many export markets remain in fragile states,” said Chris Williamson, chief economist at Markit.
That, he added, suggested manufacturing’s boost to U.S. growth in the second quarter would be modest at best.
U.S. financial markets were little moved by the reports as investors continued to digest Bernanke’s comments on Wednesday and weak factory data from China.
Stocks on Wall Street fell, with the Standard & Poor’s 500 index on pace for its first back-to-back daily drop in a month. U.S. Treasury debt prices rose, while the dollar fell against a basket of currencies.
Last week’s claims data covered the survey period for the government’s report on nonfarm payrolls for May.
Claims dropped 15,000 between the April and May survey periods, suggesting steady gains in employment this month. Employers added 165,000 jobs to their payrolls in April.
The four-week moving average for new claims, which irons out week-to-week volatility, slipped 500 to 339,500.
The claims report showed the number of people still receiving benefits under regular state programs after an initial week of aid fell 112,000 to 2.91 million in the week ended May 11. That was the first time in five years so-called continuing claims were below the 3 million mark.