Metro gives you three underdogs to consider in Week 6.
Atlanta Falcons @ Seattle Seahawks (-6)
An unstoppable force meets an immovable object as Atlanta’s top-ranked passing attack invades CenturyLink Field to test Seattle’s league-best defense. The Falcons have already proven themselves to be ‘the real deal’ after winning outright as six-point underdogs in Denver last week against another highly-touted defense. Though the Seahawks are rested off a bye week, Matt Ryan and Julio Jones will give Seattle’s secondary all they can handle. The passing game should be set up by Atlanta’s excellent rushing attack, which has averaged over 124 YPG this season thanks primarily to Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman.
Seattle could have a hard time putting up points. It is only 21st in PPG at 19.8. And while the Falcons' stoppers have allowed a ghastly 28 PPG this season, they’ve had to face some high-powered offenses like New Orleans and Oakland early in the year, which has skewed the numbers a bit. The Falcons only allowed 16 points to the Broncos last week, which was a very encouraging effort. In a game that feels like a toss-up, getting six points with Atlanta is a bargain.
The pick: Falcons +6
Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5) @ Washington Redskins
The Redskins seek their fourth straight win on the season and their fifth straight ATS (against the spread) win against the Eagles when they host their NFC East rivals on Sunday. With their loss to the Lions last week, the Eagles dropped to 2-5 ATS in their last seven games as a road favorite. Philly’s defense was exposed out of the bye week in Detroit (24 points allowed), and though the Eagles are fifth-best in football at getting to the QB (14 sacks), Kirk Cousins should be kept upright behind an O-line that’s only surrendered eight sacks in five games.
The pick: Redskins +2.5
Dallas Cowboys @ Green Bay Packers (-4)
Expect the Cowboys to light up the scoreboard at Lambeau Field. The Packers haven’t trended favorably at home (2-4-1 ATS in their last seven home games) and will face the NFL’s second-best offense by YPG. The Packers are ranked first in YPG allowed on the ground but have yet to face a rushing attack rated higher than 23rd this season, so Ezekiel Elliott should have no problem making his presence felt. Dallas will likely be without Dez Bryant again, but Dak Prescott has had no trouble finding ‘underneath’ options like Cole Beasley and Terrance Williams all season long. They’ll be matched up against a Packers defense that’s allowed the eighth-highest yards-after-catch per game.
Meanwhile, Eddie Lacy has had a good bounce-back year for Green Bay but injured his ankle last week and is considered ‘questionable’ for this game. As it stands, he’ll probably be less than 100 percent facing Dallas’ 11th-ranked run stoppers. Aaron Rodgers’ numbers are way down this year (Green Bay is ranked a woeful 27th in passing YPG), so the Packers could have a difficult time moving the chains in this one.
The Packers look overmatched, yet they are favored in this tilt. That makes Dallas the best bet of the week.
The pick: Cowboys +4
Best of the rest (picks in bold)
Cincinnati Bengals @ New England Patriots (-9)
Pittsburgh Steelers (-7.5) @ Miami Dolphins
Cleveland Browns @ Tennessee Titans (-7)
Los Angeles Rams @ Detroit Lions (-3.5)
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Chicago Bears (-2.5)
San Francisco 49ers @ Buffalo Bills (-7.5)
Carolina Panthers (-3) @ New Orleans Saints
Baltimore Ravens @ New York Giants (-3)
Kansas City Chiefs @ Oakland Raiders (E)
Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans (-3)
New York Jets @ Arizona Cardinals (-7.5)