Roll with these three road favorites in Week 7.
Buffalo Bills (-3) at Miami Dolphins
The Bills appeared to be headed for disaster after starting 0-2 and firing their offensive coordinator, but they’ve reeled off four straight wins and are poised to make it five straight against Miami this week.
The Dolphins managed to upset the Steelers and an injured Ben Roethlisberger last week but they’ve still been a bad home team of late, posting a 3-11 ATS (against the spread) record in their last 14 games in Miami. The Dolphins were torched for 235 rushing yards by the Titans two weeks ago and could meet a similar fate on Sunday as the Bills’ top-ranked running game comes into town. Miami has had no answer for their division rival of late, putting up a 1-5 record ATS in their last six contests with Buffalo. The combined score from last year’s tilts was 74-31 in favor of the Bills.
Rex Ryan said his team is playing “boring football” right now, but the bottom line is they’re winning. Expect Buffalo to keep the momentum going.
The pick: Bills -3
Minnesota Vikings (-2.5) at Philadelphia Eagles
The only undefeated team in the league (also 5-0 ATS) comes into Philadelphia to play the slumping Eagles off a bye and they’re only favored by 2.5 points? It seems suspicious, but the Vikings aren’t the kind of team that the public likes to bet. Sam Bradford is a not a star quarterback and has no high-profile options around him, but they’re still putting up 23.8 PPG. That’s thanks in part to the Vikings’ suffocating defense that’s forced 12 turnovers and only allows 287.6 YPG (second-best in the league)
Carson Wentz has turned into a pumpkin after a fantastic September and could be in for another rough day against Minnesota’s stoppers. Wentz was sacked five times last week and is now matched up against a Vikings team that’s amassed 19 sacks in five games (the third-best mark in the NFL).
Minnesota could win by two scores, so laying less than a field goal is of no concern. They’re the best bet of the week.
The pick: Vikings -2.5
New England Patriots (-7) at Pittsburgh Steelers
The tale of the tape spells doom for the hot-and-cold Steelers, especially with Ben Roethlisberger ruled out. New England is 2-0 straight-up and ATS since Tom Brady’s return, covering sizeable lines over the Browns and Bengals. Landry Jones, who fills in for ‘Big Ben’ here, played poorly in relief last year, throwing two picks in his lone complete game. Bill Belichick is probably not losing much sleep gameplanning for Jones, especially since there is game tape of Jones readily available.
Even if Roethlisberger were fully healthy this game appears to be a complete mismatch on paper; the Patriots hold the advantage in a host of important categories, including point differential as well as offensive and defensive YPG.
The pick: Patriots -7
Best of the rest (picks in bold)
New York Giants (-3) @ Los Angeles Rams (London)
Oakland Raiders @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-1)
Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans (-2.5)
Washington Redskins @ Detroit Lions (-1.5)
New Orleans Saints @ Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5)
Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals (-10)
Baltimore Ravens @ New York Jets (E)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5) @ San Francisco 49ers
San Diego Chargers @ Atlanta Falcons (-6.5)
Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals (-2)
Houston Texans @ Denver Broncos (-7.5)