Five Thirty Eight, the forecasting blog that predicted the results of the last two presidential elections with uncanny accuracy, is now on the record predicting a win for Christine Quinn in the Democratic primary for the mayor's race.
The key to the forecast is recent history. An analysis of public opinion polls going back to the late 1980's shows that whoever holds the early lead tends to win. Quinn has led in every poll conducted so far this year.
"In five of the past six Democratic primaries for mayor, the candidate who led in an average of polls conducted in the first six months of the election year advanced to the general election," Five Thirty Eight contributor Micah Cohen wrote. "The only exception was in 2009, when then-Representative Anthony D. Weiner led William C. Thompson Jr., the New York City comptroller, by five percentage points but decided not to formally enter the race."
Weiner, a late entry in the race this time around, made a strong debut in the first poll conducted after he announced his campaign, coming in just five points behind Quinn among likely Democratic voters.
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