A look at where to place your money this weekend in Week 10 of the 2016 NFL season.
Miami Dolphins at San Diego Chargers (-4)
The Dolphins are riding a three-game winning streak into this road tilt with the Chargers, but San Diego looks poised to halt Miami’s momentum.
Jay Ajayi has been a revelation for the Dolphins in recent weeks (529 rushing yards since being promoted three weeks ago) but the Chargers have yet to allow a 100-yard rusher this season and rank fifth overall in rushing defense. With the Dolphins’ best offensive weapon neutralized, the potent Chargers attack (424 YPG last three games) should find extra time on the field.
The venue change could also present the Dolphins some trouble. After four straight games at home Miami must head on the road, where they are 1-4 ATS in their last five contests. By contrast, San Diego in 4-1 ATS in their last five tilts at Qualcomm Stadium.
Look for Melvin Gordon to dominate the Dolphins’ sorry run stoppers (third-worst in the NFL) as the Chargers coast to an easy win. They are the best bet of the week.
The pick: Chargers -4
Dallas Cowboys at Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5)
The Cowboys, who have yet to lose ATS this year (7-0-1), are an enticing underdog as they face the Steelers in Pittsburgh on Sunday.
Ezekiel Elliott, who further solidified his offensive Rookie of the Year claim last week by slashing the Browns rush defense for 92 yards on just 15 carries, gets to face a Steelers defense that’s surrendered 137 YPG on the ground in their last three games. Pittsburgh has struggled to stop the pass all season long (22nd in the league), so Dak Prescott should be able to air it out successfully when need be.
Meanwhile, the Cowboys’ fourth-ranked defense by PPG (17.5) will take on a Steelers offense that struggled greatly in Ben Roethlisberger’s return last week, and hasn’t cracked the 20-point plateau in three consecutive games. Bet Dallas with confidence here.
The pick: Cowboys +2.5
Cincinnati Bengals at New York Giants (E)
Fresh off a bye week, the Bengals have a good chance to wipe the bad taste out of their mouths on Monday night after settling for a tie with the Redskins two weeks ago.
Cincinnati has started just 1-3 on the road this season, but they’ve drawn some tough matchups away from home in the early going, including New England and Dallas. Last year, the Bengals were an incredible 8-0 outside of Paul Brown Stadium. They can get back on track in that column against a softer opponent in New York.
Andy Dalton should connect with A.J. Green early and often against the Giants’ awful pass defense (24th in the league). The Bengals’ D has some give to it (ranked 20th in passing), but they can afford to ‘cheat’ against the pass a bit more than they’re used to as the Giants have averaged less than 50 yards rushing in their last four contests.
In a game that has the potential to be a shootout, a diversified Bengals offense that can turn to Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard in the backfield has the edge.
The pick: Bengals (Even)
Best of the rest (picks in bold)
Chicago Bears (-1) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Minnesota Vikings @ Washington Redskins (-2.5)
Kansas City Chiefs @ Carolina Panthers (-3)
Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-2)
Green Bay Packers (-2.5) @ Tennessee Titans
Los Angeles Rams @ New York Jets (-2)
Denver Broncos @ New Orleans Saints (-3)
Atlanta Falcons (-2) @ Philadelphia Eagles
San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals (-13.5)
Seattle Seahawks @ New England Patriots (-7.5)