NFL best bets, gambling lines for Week 4 (Sunday, October 4)

Best bets for NFL Week 4:

New York Jets (-1.5) vs. Miami Dolphins [9:30 a.m. EST, game in London]

The Miami Dolphins, a team that some expected would rise to the top of the AFC East after a productive offseason that saw them nab Ndamukong Suh, are rapidly deteriorating. Suh is apparently disgruntled, and has only three tackles in three games this season. The Dolphins barely scraped by the lowly Redskins in Week 1, then lost to the awful Jaguars in Week 2 and were slaughtered by the Bills in Week 3; not exactly the makings of a playoff team. The Jets, on the other hand, have played surprisingly well in the first year of the Todd Bowles era. After earning a big win over the Browns and earning aquality win over the Colts, they played admirably in defeat to a desperate Eagles squad last week. Expect the Jets defense (ranked fourthin yards allowed and first in points allowed in 2015) to stifle the Dolphins overseas.

The pick: Jets -1.5

Kansas City Chiefs at Cincinnati Bengals (-4)

The Chiefs were not a good road team last year; they went 3-5 and averaged only 19 points in those contests. Their one win this year came on the road but it was a close shave against the Texans, who look like a mess this season. They were fortunate to score 28 points on Monday night against Green Bay as some of those came in garbage time. Meanwhile, the Bengals have been a great home team the last few seasons (21-9 in their last 30 home contests) and they got off to another winning start in Paul Brown Stadium by beating the Chargers in Week 2. Cincinnati’s offense has been unstoppable so far this season, gaining over 414 YPG, just behind New England for the NFL lead. The Chiefs are capable of generating some pressure on Andy Dalton, but I doubt this 24^th-ranked squad is capable of holding the Bengals under 20 points.

The pick: Bengals -4

Minnesota Vikings at Denver Broncos (-6.5)

After being pronounced dead by more than a few “experts,” Peyton Manning looked alive and well last Sunday night when he carved up the Lions atFord Field. Now the 3-0 Broncos return home, where they’ve won all but two games they’ve played since Manning joined them in 2012. The Vikings may be 2-1 but they looked listless in their only road tilt, a 20-3 loss to the 49ers, who have subsequently been shellacked by the Steelers and Cardinals and are due for another stomping against Green Bay. The Broncos have the sixth-best rush defense in the NFL, so once the villainous Adrian Peterson is shut down, Teddy Bridgewater will be forced to match scores with a living legend. That likely won’t end well, as Denver has already forced six INTs on defense this season

The pick: Broncos -6.5

Best of the rest

Houston Texans at Atlanta Falcons (-6.5)

New York Giants at Buffalo Bills (-5)

Oakland Raiders (-3) at Chicago Bears

Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (-9)

Carolina Panthers (-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Philadelphia Eagles (-3) at Washington Redskins

Cleveland Browns at San Diego Chargers (-7.5)

St. Louis Rams at Arizona Cardinals (-7)

Green Bay Packers (-9) at San Francisco 49ers

Dallas Cowboys at New Orleans Saints [OFF]