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Probability of Trump winning nomination drops, report shows

PredictIt, an online predictions market, showed Donald Trump's numbers falling and Ted Cruz's numbers rising.

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump leaves meetings at the Republican NatiReuters

The probability that Republican front-runnerDonaldTrumpwill win his party's presidential nomination dropped sharply in the past week while the likelihood of a brokered convention to potentially chose another candidate rose, according to online predictions market PredictIt.

Trump's probability of winning the nomination fell to 44 percent on Friday from 67 percent a week ago, according to the website, which is run by Victoria University in Wellington, New Zealand. For Republican rival Ted Cruz, a U.S. Senator from Texas, it rose to 34 percent from 14 percent during the same period.

RELATED:Trump meets with Republican leadership; party unity discussed

The probability that the Republicans will have a brokered convention to decide the nominee for the Nov. 8 election jumped to 69 percent from 43 percent a week ago.

Celebrity businessmanTrumpis facing pressure to take a more serious approach to his presidential campaign from supporters worried that a string of recent missteps and controversial comments may do lasting damage.

A Cruz win in Tuesday's primary in Wisconsin would make it harder forTrumpto reach the 1,237 delegates needed to clinch the nomination before the Republican national convention in July.

IfTrumpdoes not win enough delegates, then the party facesthe prospect of holding a contested, or brokered, convention in which party leaders try to negotiate nominating a compromise candidate.

 

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