Philip Rivers is a player clearly on the decline. Do not take him in your fantasy draft.

 
There are certain players that have us on the fence, waiting to see what’s next. There are others we can simply cross off the board.

Perhaps the most crucial aspect of fantasy football drafting is identifying a player that has reached his career peak and is now on the downslope. Not only will these players be overdrafted, but they’ll also perform well below expectation. Here are this year’s prime over-the-hill candidates:
Lil’ Wayne
Reggie Wayne was rejuvenated by the arrival of Andrew Luck and passing-game guru Bruce Arians last season, finishing with an impressive 106/1355/5 line. Over the last eight games, he managed just 45 catches for 520 yards and two touchdowns. Now Wayne will turn 35 in November and Arians has fled for Arizona. Drafting based on last year’s numbers will get you burned.

Rivers of Screams
For some reason, Philip Rivers remains a big name in NFL circles. The truth is that over the last two seasons, he has gone 15-17 while throwing 53 touchdowns against 47 turnovers. His yards per attempt has gone from 8.7 to 7.9 to 6.8 over the last three years. At age 32, his arm strength is declining and he is playing behind perhaps the worst offensive line in the league. Don’t take the bait.

Pocket Hercules
It’s been a rough year for Maurice Jones-Drew. Last offseason, he staged an ugly holdout that produced zero wiggle from the Jaguars. Then he sustained a severe Lisfranc injury, underwent surgery in December and showed up to offseason workouts out of shape. Last week, he allegedly sucker-punched a bouncer at a Florida restaurant. Meanwhile, MJD has 1,862 career touches on his 28-year-old wheels. It’s time to let someone else take the plunge here.

MLB News » Cheaters?

Fantasy owners don’t care if their players are doping. We just don’t want them to get caught. Well, a whole bunch of us are steaming now as Ryan Braun is among the players facing lengthy suspensions stemming from the Biogenesis case. However, there’s no reason to go selling for pennies on the dollar. Braun could drag this thing out for a couple months via appeal — and keep playing in the meantime.

MLB Pickups » Sign ‘em

Yasiel Puig, OF, LAD: Unless you’ve been living under a rock, you know that Puig is the second coming of Mickey Mantle.
Rex Brothers, RP, COL: He’s closing while Rafael Betancourt is hurt, but Brothers has standalone appeal as well. He has allowed one earned run in 25 2/3 innings.
Mike Aviles, CLE : A streaky hitter that is better in fantasy than real life. Has some speed and is eligible at three positions.

NFL Injuries » Watch out

These last few weeks of non-padded practice brought a new batch of nicks to keep an eye on.
1. Trent Richardson, RB, CLE - After slogging through two knee scopes and a pair of broken ribs last year, Richardson is already out with a shin issue this year. The Browns are carrying four other capable backs. Durability is a concern.
2. Ben Roethlisberger, QB, PIT - Seven years ago, Big Ben had a scope to repair the meniscus in his right knee. He had the same procedure Wednesday. It should be water under the bridge by camp.
3. Arian Foster, RB, HOU - There were already concerns here after a 4.1 YPC last season and a league-high workload over last three years. This calf strain won’t help.

The post Living the Fantasy: Players to cross off your NFL draft board appeared first on Metro.us.

We are just two months into the season, and already 40 different players have multiple saves.

Jason Grilli, a 36-year-old that’s never closed before, leads the league with 21 saves. Edward Mujica didn’t even start the season with the gig, but already has 16. Even “sure things” Joel Hanrahan and J.J. Putz have been bitten by the injury bug.

The point is that the active owner is the one that dominates the saves category. We don’t need to prioritize them on draft day, but we do need to follow the ebbs and flows of bullpens closely.

Ray of desperation
Fernando Rodney has a 5.48 ERA and has blown five saves already. But the Rays need him to snap out of it and be their closer, simply because they don’t have anyone else. Logical replacement Jake McGee has given up four homers in 20 innings, an unacceptable rate for a closing candidate. Don’t drop Rodney no matter how bad it gets.

Brewing a mess

Jim Henderson was poised to run away with Milwaukee’s closing job, but a pulled hamstring has landed him on the disabled list. It speaks volumes that the Brewers have chosen to go with Francisco Rodriguez, a guy who got no sniffs on the open market until Milwaukee gave him a minor league deal. John Axford can be left on waivers.

Dodging problems
Owners of Matt Kemp realize that the Dodgers aren’t scoring runners or getting leads, so the closing situation isn’t all that interesting right now. That could change quickly once the bats come around. Brandon League continues to hold the gig ahead of Kenley Jansen, but it’s close. Both fireballers are worth riding for their peripheral stats.

NFL Risers

We’re less than 100 days away from the start of the NFL season. Some sleepers to keep an eye on:
1. Josh Gordon, WR, CLE — The Browns are installing an aggressive, vertical offense. It’s a perfect fit for No. 1 wideout Gordon.
2. Dennis Pitta, TE, BAL — Now that Anquan Boldin is gone, Pitta will function as the Ravens’ physical pass-catcher over the middle.
3. Chris Ivory, RB, NYJ — The Jets have a good run-blocking offensive line and are awful at everything else. Enter Ivory, a physical beast.

NFL News

Feeling Crabby?
Over the final nine games of last season (including playoffs), Michael Crabtree saw 89 targets. Now he’s out until Week 12 at the earliest after tearing his Achilles’ tendon. Downgrade Colin Kaepernick slightly, upgrade Vernon Davis significantly, cross Crabtree off your lists and keep an eye on second-year wideout A.J. Jenkins.

MLB Pickups

Yasmani Grandal, C, SD: The 50-game ban is finally over. Grandal will quickly take the No. 1 catcher job away from Nick Hundley.
Michael Wacha, SP, STL: One of the best pitching prospects around, Wacha has been promoted to the Show. Boasts a 1.71 ERA in the minors.
Vinnie Pestano, RP, CLE: A nasty setup man that’s getting a chance to close with Chris Perez (shoulder) sidelined.

The post Living the Fantasy: Always, always be closing appeared first on Metro.us.

Some guys seek out the girlfriend experience. Others want the true general manager experience.

For those of us who dream of being Jerry Reese, rather than being with Sasha Grey, we have dynasty leagues. The players we draft can be with us forever, we can sell prospects at the deadline to go for a title and we can build a perennial contender. It’s the truest form of fantasy.

The NFL draft provides a unique opportunity for dynasty owners. There are certain players that might not make a huge impact right away, but project to be major assets down the line:

Manly Christine
Why did the Seahawks use a second-round pick on Texas A&M’s Christine Michael when they already have Marshawn Lynch and Robert Turbin? Three reasons. First, Lynch has a balky back and is a candidate to be a cap casualty as soon as 2015. Second, Lynch is facing DUI charges and a possible suspension. And third, they really like Michael as a potential feature back down the line. It makes him an ideal dynasty stash as the Seahawks project to be a dominant, run-heavy team for years to come.

Backfield in motion
Denard Robinson is 5-foot-10, 199 lbs., ran a 4.43 at the combine and has the jukes to make defenders look silly. That sounds a lot like Chris Johnson. Robinson was a running quarterback at Michigan, where he piled up an absurd 4,495 yards and 42 touchdowns. The Jags drafted him to play running back, where they have Maurice Jones-Drew in a contract year. Robinson has the makings of a steal.

Cut the Cord
Cordarrelle Patterson played one year of Division I football. In that year, he caught 46 passes for 778 yards and five touchdowns. The Vikings made him a first-round pick because of what he can be down the line, not what he is now. The most naturally gifted athlete in his class, Patterson will start off behind Jerome Simpson, catching mostly screens and running reverses. Within a couple years, he’ll be the Vikings’ No. 1 wideout.

NFL news
The biggest injury of the offseason is Robert Griffin III’s knee. Next up is Rob Gronkowski’s forearm. We’ll find out within the next couple weeks if he’ll need a fifth procedure on his infected left forearm. If he does, Gronk’s Week 1 status will be in doubt. The infection, however, is not expect to prevent him from smashing beer cans against his face and fist-pumping shirtless.
MLB pickups
Junichi Tazawa, RP, Red Sox: Joel Hanrahan and Andrew Bailey are both on the DL. For now, Tazawa is the closer.
Andrew Cashner, SP, Padres: We’re always trying to add pitchers who call Petco home. This ex-reliever is now locked into the rotation.
Jedd Gyorko, 2B/3B, Padres: A highly-touted prospect, Gyorko is hitting .360 with three homers over his last seven games. The light is on.

The post Adam Levitan, Living the Fantasy: Dynasty owners are drooling appeared first on Metro.us.

The outfield and first base positions are so deep that we should be reaching for the stars. If we come up short, there are always options on waivers as the season moves along.

Blip on the radar
Jason Heyward burst onto the scene in 2010 with incredible promise. He crashed back to earth last year as he dealt with weight issues, shoulder problems and a plain old sophomore slump. The scary part is that Heyward is still only 22 and has lost 20 pounds. He’s a strong bet to bounce back as he begins to enter his prime both mentally and physically.  

Injury bounce-back
Kendrys Morales hasn’t played since May 2010 thanks to a devastating ankle injury. Now he’s nearing full strength and has Albert Pujols in his lineup. Remember that Morales swatted 34 homers while hitting .306 in 2009.  

After the hype   
Brandon Belt was one of the biggest hitting prospects in baseball heading into last season. He flopped, managing just nine homers and a .225 batting average in 187 big-league at-bats. Now he’s back battling for a job in spring training after destroying minor league pitching. Watch Belt closely.

Top NBA pickups

Bismack Biyombo
C, Bobcats
A raw yet dominant shot-blocker that is locked into a starting role and 30 minutes the rest of the way.

Ekpe Udoh
C, Warriors
Andris Biedrins is out as the starting center and Udoh is in. He’s similar to Biyombo, with a little better touch.

Kenneth Faried
PF,?Nuggets
Known as the “Manimal,” this rookie has earned 25 minutes nightly with amazing energy.

The post Fantasy sports: Looking for midround bats appeared first on Metro.us.

Seeking major upside from unproven players is the way to gain an edge in the middle and later rounds. Up front, however, we want a sure thing.

Scary studs

Matt Kemp is going No. 1 overall in a ton of leagues, mostly because he was the No. 1 player by a wide margin last season. But Kemp is also one year removed from a .249 batting average and 19 steals. The NL?West is also a pitcher-friendly division. Avoid.   

Prince Fielder is scary because he just got a $214 million contract from the Tigers, is changing leagues and now calls a pitcher’s park home. A?letdown is possible.  

We also have to be concerned with players that have career seasons at age 30. Curtis Granderson has always been a favorite thanks to his power/speed combo, but no one should be expecting 41 homers again.

Baseball studs

Miguel Cabrera
1B, Tigers
One of the game’s best natural hitters now has Prince Fielder for added lineup protection. There is
no way he fails.
 
Troy Tulowitzki
SS, Rockies
Injuries are always a concern, but playing in Colorado at the thin shortstop spot is unique.

Hoops pickups

Options off the wire:

1. Josh Howard, SF, UTA — Howard has earned the starting gig as he’s finally over his ACL tear. We know he can score 13-16 points nightly. 

2. Jordan Crawford, SG, WAS — Nick Young is an impending free agent, meaning the Wiz are going to take a long look at Crawford. He’s going to push for 30 minutes the rest of the way.

The post Fantasy sports: Matt Kemp is No. 1 in a ton of leagues appeared first on Metro.us.

That’s an unexploitable strategy, until our ERA and WHIP spiral out of control before April ends. The only way it works is if we know what starters to target in the middle-to-late rounds.

Ex-closers
Pitchers often become closers because they throw hard and strike people out. That’s also the kind of upside we’re looking for in our starters. This year, ex-closers Neftali?Feliz (Rangers) and Chris Sale (White Sox) are expected to get their shots every fifth day. Daniel Bard (Red Sox) and Aroldis Chapman (Reds) are also starting candidates.     

Pitcher’s parks
When we think about ballparks where runs go to die, the first place that comes to mind is San Diego’s Petco Park. That’s what makes Cory Luebke so exciting. Max Scherzer is off a down year, but still calls Detroit’s cavernous confines home. And for a deep sleeper, Oakland’s Brandon McCarthy had a 2.65 ERA at home last year.

Young guns  
When all else fails, we look for young prospects with impressive pedigrees. We know that Tampa’s Matt Moore fits the bill, while Atlanta’s Mike Minor and Texas’ Yu Darvish have major upside as well.

Baseball power

Chicks dig the long ball. That’s why getting these big bats later in drafts is vital:

1. Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, ARZ — The 6-foot-3, 244-pounder smashed 30 homers in the minors last year and then eight more after a late-season callup. He’s now locked into the starting role in a hitter’s park. 

2. Ike Davis, 1B, NYM — The devastating ankle injury is behind him, and the fences at Citi Field have been brought in. Davis won’t be 25 until March, but already has 26 homers in 183 career games.  

Top NBA pickups

Isaiah Thomas
PG, Kings
Thomas was the last pick in this year’s draft and is 5-foot-9. He’s also an explosive
playmaker and new starter. 

Andray Blatche
PF, Wizards
Blatche (calf) is expected back soon after the All-Star break. His $35 million contract means he’ll start again.

The post Fantasy sports: Don’t sleep on pitchers appeared first on Metro.us.

Over the last six games, the former undrafted free agent out of Harvard is averaging 26.8 points and 8.5 assists.

Expecting him to sustain that is unrealistic — even for the biggest “Linsanity” fans.

Hot shot
During Lin’s 21 career D-League games, the point guard shot 48 percent from the field. When players make the leap to the pros, their shooting percentage inevitably comes down.
But since bursting onto the scene with the Knicks, Lin is at 50.4 percent. A regression is coming.    

Melo issues
If Carmelo Anthony (groin) was healthy, Lin wouldn’t even have taken that game-winning shot against the Raptors. Once Melo gets back in the lineup, Lin’s attempts and time with the ball will go down. Right now, he’s getting 19.5 shots up per night. Anthony was a “ball hog” at 18.8 attempts per game.

How high?  
All this said, we should not be selling Lin on the cheap. He’s going to settle in around 32-35 minutes, well off the 40 he’s playing right now. But he’ll still be a top-50 player as a perfect fit for Mike D’Antoni’s offense. Aim for the top-30.

Top NBA pickups

Nicolas Batum
F, Blazers
Portland is struggling, so they are turning their mega-talented sixth man into a starter. Major upside.

J.R. Smith
SG, Free agent
Smith is on his way back from China and has been linked to the Clippers’ starting gig.

The post Fantasy sports: What to make of all this Linsanity appeared first on Metro.us.

Some superstars, like Kevin Durant and LeBron James, are at the top of the fantasy pile as well. But others are overrated — thanks to various holes in their games.

The free-throw issue
Blake Griffin, Dwight Howard, Andrew Bynum and Josh Smith are all tremendous assets to their respective squads. They also cause fantasy owners to be dead last in free-throw percentage every week. It’s almost impossible to overcome that.

Past their prime
A wise man once said that Father Time is undefeated. But year after year, owners insist on over-rating players on the downside of their careers. Tim Duncan, Elton Brand, Jason Kidd, Paul Pierce and Dirk Nowitzki are former greats that are no longer worth the price tag. With the condensed schedule wreaking havoc, youth is being served. The old guys are missing games and playing less minutes.

The little things   
An NBA?star can get away with just scoring and rebounding or passing. A fantasy star can’t. If players aren’t going to block, steal or make 3-pointers then their value is capped. Tony Parker, Luis Scola and David Lee are very nice real-life players that can’t hack it in the fantasy world.

The post Fantasy sports: Big names, small games appeared first on Metro.us.

Fantasy basketball is a category game, not a raw points game. Winning rebounds is nice, but it’s not worth anything more than winning free-throw percentage. If we build our team around the less glamourous categories, we’ll be ahead of the game.

Use the player rater
If I told you Marc Gasol is a top-5 fantasy player, would you be surprised? Only three players are averaging at least 2.0 blocks, 1.0 steals and shooting at least 50 percent from the field: Gasol, JaVale McGee and Dwight Howard. Sneaky categories rule the player rater.

Attack with defense
Adding a pure scorer to your team isn’t going to generate much movement in the points category. But adding an elite thief or shot-blocker can turn things around in a hurry. While 23 players are clustered between 16.0 and 22.0 points per game, just nine block 2.0 shots or more. And only six nab 2.0 steals a night.

Key percentages   
Although one player can’t win you free-throw or field-goal percentage, one guy can lose it for you. We should be simply ignoring high-volume gunners like Stephen Jackson, Danny Granger and DeMar DeRozan. And if a guy gets to the line five times a game, he better be shooting at least 70 percent. Howard, Blake Griffin and Josh Smith are category-killers.

Baseball bullpens

Wrapping our brains around who will get the saves is vital to a successful season. Some closers in new homes:

1. Jonathan Papelbon, PHL — The Phillies gave Paps $50 million to be their ninth-inning man. His career 2.33 ERA and 1.02 WHIP will fit well with Ryan Madson gone.

2. Sergio Santos, TOR — This Blue Jays team won 81 games a year ago and is getting better. Santos, acquired in a trade with the White Sox, will have plenty of chances.

3. Andrew Bailey, BOS — It’s all about health with Bailey. When available, he’s among the most dominant relievers in the game.

Top NBA pickups

Drew Gooden
C, Bucks
With Andrew Bogut (ankle) possibly done for the season, the Bucks’ offense will revolve around Gooden. Averaging 17.3 points and 8.9 boards as a starter this year.

Roddy Beaubois
G, Mavericks
Jason Kidd is breaking down in terms of both health and effectiveness at age 38. The future is now for Beaubois, who once scored 40 in a game back in 2010.

Trevor Booker
PF,?Wizards
Even if Andray Blatche (calf) was healthy, Booker would be pushing him. The second-year man plays the right way, leading to blocks, steals and strong field-goal percentage.

The post Fantasy sports: Hidden value in hoops appeared first on Metro.us.

The playoffs are a great tool we can use to see who coaches and quarterbacks really trust.

For example, the chatter that Victor Cruz is actually a better receiver than Hakeem Nicks has quickly been squashed. Cruz is a very, very nice player. But as Nicks as shown in the last two weeks, he is a physical specimen with a better long-term outlook.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis doesn’t fumble, so he continues to play ahead of the more promising youngster, Stevan Ridley.

The Falcons blamed a lot of their running game failure on Michael Turner and are talking up the screen game for next season. The stone-handed Turner is going to see a drastic reduction in touches next year.

Arian Foster continued to prove he is matchup-proof. He was the best player on the field last week despite going against the Ravens’ elite run defense.

Fantasy NBA pickups

Depth charts are changing quickly as coaches move on from ineffective players.

1. Kemba Walker, SG, CHA — The Bobcats are going small and young, giving the explosive Walker 35-plus minutes per night. He’s got a green light to fire at will.

2. James Johnson, SF, TOR — The defensive dynamo is pushing hard for the starting gig. An average of 1.5 blocks and 1.5 steals is realistic.

3. Daniel Gibson, SG, CLE — One of the best pure 3-point shooters in the game is now the starter. A real threat to make two treys per night.

The post Playoff clues to remember appeared first on Metro.us.

As we continue to digest the 2011 season, we turn our attention to the top. It’s the place that will be least affected by the draft and free agency. It’s also the place that generates the most controversy.

The projected 2012 first round:

Dual threat backs
All of our running back targets should be assets in the passing game as well as the ground game. Ray Rice comes off the board first as an elite goal-line back and receiver. LeSean McCoy and Arian Foster are right there as the next two picks with similar skill sets.   
     
Taking it to the air
Taking a quarterback in the first round is usually not optimal. But Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees and Cam Newton are so consistently dominant that they are impossible to ignore. They are the fourth, sixth and seventh picks. Sandwiched at the No. 5 spot is the best raw talent in the NFL at any position, Calvin?Johnson.
 
Wrapping with runners
Without the likes of Adrian Peterson (knee), Jamaal Charles (knee), Rashard Mendenhall (knee) and Darren?McFadden (foot) to choose from, the last three picks are runners with question marks. Maurice Jones-Drew continues to thrive despite massive workloads and comes in at No. 8. Ryan Mathews has exciting upside at No. 9 and Matt Forte wraps our top 10.

Top NBA pickups

Chandler Parsons
SF, Rockets 
Parsons is a versatile rookie that was the SEC?Player of the Year last season. He has won the starting small forward gig, sending Chase Budinger to the bench.     

MarShon?Brooks
SG, Nets
The Nets are desperate for anyone that can put the ball in the hoop, and Brooks can certainly do that. He averaged 14.4 ppg through his first nine NBA?games.  

Iman Shumpert
PG,?Knicks
Shumpert was the best pure athlete in the draft and is now the clear starter ahead of Toney Douglas. His energy leads to steals, blocks and three-pointers.

The post Way-too-early look at the 2012 top 10 appeared first on Metro.us.

In fantasy, these are the players we need to take note of. Their coaches force-feed them the ball and when they get it, they do things that other mere mortals are incapable of.

Here are some guys that emerged as truly different players in 2011:

Julio at the schoolyard

Julio Jones ran a ridiculous 4.39, 40-yard dash at the NFL combine and has ideal size at 6-foot-3/220 pounds. In his rookie year, he proved that he knows how to use those measurements. Jones is already a better receiver than teammate Roddy White, dominating defenses with his physicality.  
      
Moore for Denarius

The ability to go deep at the NFL level is an art form. Denarius Moore showed that he’s close to mastering it already. His ability to adjust on long balls and make extremely tough catches is some-thing that can’t be taught.

Making it rain

If it wasn’t for Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham, we’d be talking about Aaron Hernandez as the biggest freak at the tight end position. His skill set is so unique that the Patriots call reverses and bubble screens for him. That’s because in the open field, Hernandez makes defenders miss like a wideout.

The post Fantasy sports: Targeting the 2011 talents appeared first on Metro.us.

If you’re drooling over your dominant regular-season record and not prepping for the playoffs, you’re making a big mistake. Now is the time to add defenses, protect yourself with handcuffs and examine matchups.

Here are teams with the worst schedules for fantasy production in Weeks 15 and 16.

Sorry, St. Louis
The Rams host the Bengals in Week 15 and then travel to Pittsburgh in Week 16. Yikes. Owners riding Steven Jackson need to explore other options and Brandon Lloyd deserves a downgrade as well.
          
Frankly, trouble
Frank Gore’s role in the passing game has been reduced to nil. His burst is also gone. And in the fantasy playoffs, he’ll face the dominant run defenses of the Steelers and Seahawks. Also, Vernon Davis will be asked to block more than catch in these spots.       

Lynch mob
Marshawn Lynch’s surprising run of exceptional play is about to end. He has no chance in Chicago come Week 15 and he’ll get swallowed up by the Niners in Week 16.

Top NFL picks

Donald Brown
]RB, Colts
Right now, Brown is simply a better player than Joseph Addai. He’ll lead Indy in
carries going forward.   

Riley Cooper
WR,?Eagles
Jeremy Maclin remains
sidelined. Vince Young has targeted Cooper 16 times in the last two games.

Maurice Morris
RB, Lions
With Kevin Smith (ankle)?in doubt, Morris will get plenty of checkdowns once again this week.

The post Scheduling from hell appeared first on Metro.us.

So after a week that saw a fistful of quarterbacks go down with injuries, there’s reason for concern. After all, a wideout is worthless if his quarterback can’t get him the ball. Should we be selling?

Bad for Bowe
With Matt Cassel done for the year, the Chiefs are turning to Tyler Palko. Yikes. Palko is a former undrafted free agent, possesses a weak arm and has poor size. These are all major red flags for an offense that was already skewed toward the run. Sell Dwayne Bowe while you can as his talent can’t overcome this.
          
Trojan horse
Before we write off Matt Leinart, let’s remember his credentials coming out of college. He’s got a big arm and he’s willing to use it. Considering Andre Johnson is perhaps the best all-around receiver in the league, he’ll sustain high-end WR2 value.       

Vinsanity
If Vince Young ends up starting in place of Michael Vick, look for lots of rollouts and short passes underneath. Give Brent Celek a boost, but don’t expect DeSean Jackson to finally break out. Young figures to play it conservative.

Top NFL pickups

Denarius Moore
WR, Raiders
Freakish talent, a full-time starting role and a quarterback not afraid to chuck it deep. Moore is for real.   

Lance Ball
RB,?Broncos
Knowshon Moreno (knee) is done for the year and the Broncos run the ball 800 times per game.

Vince Young
QB, Eagles
Michael Vick is shaky for this week and won’t push it once the Eagles are mathematically eliminated. Young runs.

The post Fantasy football: Quarterback carnage appeared first on Metro.us.

Everyone knows that Fred Jackson is fantasy’s MVP, Chris Johnson is the biggest bust and Cam Newton is the rookie of the year. But what about these categories:

Injury of the year
It’s unlikely that owners were able to overcome Jamaal Charles’s season-ending Week 2 ACL tear. He had no clear handcuff and getting running back help during the season is brutal. While Kenny Britt’s knee injury was painful, there are enough wideouts out there to overcome it.       
          
Best performance
In Week 4 against the Broncos, Aaron Rodgers piled up more fantasy points than Vernon Davis or Mario Manningham have all season. He threw for 408 yards, ran for 36 more and scored six total touchdowns.      

Top waiver add
Victor Cruz wasn’t drafted coming out of UMass. He also wasn’t drafted in any fantasy leagues. But he has bucked the odds, establishing himself as a highly-productive No. 3 receiver and outscoring guys like Larry Fitzgerald and Brandon Marshall along the way.

Top NFL pickups

Roy Helu
RB, Redskins
Locked in as the every-down back in an offense that loves to check down to its backs. Major PPR?upside.   

Laurent Robinson
WR,?Cowboys
With Miles Austin out 2-4 weeks, Robinson is going to be a target hog. In this offense, he’ll have WR2 value.

Jacoby Ford
WR, Raiders
Ford has replaced Darrius Heyward-Bey as a starter. Has elite speed to catch up to bombs from?Carson Palmer.

The post Midseason award tour appeared first on Metro.us.

With that in mind, it’s important to take a step back and rethink player values at the midway point. If we could draft again, just for Weeks 9-16, who would we take? Glad you asked:  

Running backs rule

There aren’t too many healthy running backs left that are playing at an elite level and being used on three downs. The ones that are should be the first few picks.

Arian Foster is the focal point of an offense with the best run-blocking line in the league. He’s the No. 1 pick. Then comes Adrian Peterson, whose stock is on the rise thanks to Christian Ponder. LeSean McCoy and Ray Rice are next as the best pass-catching backs in the league. All four are also the goal-line backs for their respective teams.            
          
Unstoppable

Conventional wisdom suggests Calvin Johnson will regress to the mean in the second half. However, that wisdom doesn’t take into account that Johnson is a “once in a generation” kind of player. He’s the No. 5 pick.

Quarterbacks don’t yield much
value compared to other positions, but Aaron Rodgers is a freak. There’s no risk in him at No. 6. After that, we take an injury risk in the form of Darren McFadden. If he can get healthy, he’s a threat to lead the league in scoring in any given week.

Perhaps the two biggest surprises of the season have been Fred Jackson and Matt Forte. They won’t fall on their face, but aren’t elite enough to sustain the current pace. Picks eight and nine for them make sense.       

Vick is not a trick

Forget about Michael Vick’s substandard first half. It’s a fluke he hasn’t run for a touchdown, and his offensive line is finally giving him some time. The upside here is still limitless with the No. 10 pick.

Top NFL Picks

Brent Celek
TE, Eagles
The?Birds have realized that their outside speed leaves the middle of the field wide open. With the offensive line shaping up, Celek is no longer needed as a blocker.    

Jonathan Baldwin
WR,?Chiefs
The impressive rookie is playing in all three-wide sets and at least half of the two-wide sets. Matt Cassel is willing to throw him jump balls deep down the field.

Javon Ringer
RB, Titans
Yes, it’s gotten this bad for Chris Johnson. The Titans are planning on going with a “hot hand” at running back. And right now,?Ringer is more likely to get hot.

The post Let’s start this over appeared first on Metro.us.

In a surprising turn of events, Carson Palmer, Brandon Lloyd and Mike Sims-Walker will all be pulling on new uniforms come Sunday. Let the adjustments begin.

Which Carson?
Between 2004 and 2006, Palmer was one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. Since then, he’s been a shell of himself thanks to elbow and knee injuries. While the Raiders are betting that Palmer will return to form, fantasy owners shouldn’t be. Look for the Raiders to ride Darren McFadden and Michael Bush, leaving Palmer as a weak QB2.            
          
Reunited and excited
Wide receivers are dependant on quarterback and scheme. Brandon Lloyd was in a horrible spot for both as a Bronco. Now that he’s in St. Louis, he’s reunited with pass-happy offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels. Lloyd gets a major upgrade, and so does Eric Decker. He’ll be Tim Tebow’s No. 1 option.

MSW, Part II
Mike Sims-Walker averaged 3.07 catches for 40.1 yards with the Jags last year. Expecting anything more than that with Blaine Gabbert at the helm is silly.

Keep it up

Will the top players at their respective positions sustain production?

1. Fred Jackson, RB, BUF — F-Jax won’t finish the year as the No. 1 RB, but he’ll be in the top-5. As the weather deteriorates, the Bills will lean on him even more. 

2. Calvin Johnson, WR, DET — Megatron is on pace for 24 touchdowns. He will end up with around 18.

3. Jimmy Graham, TE, NO — The scary part is that the ex-hoopster is still learning football. An every-week mismatch, he’ll only get better.

Top NFL picks

DeMarco?Murray
RB, Cowboys
With Felix Jones (ankle) out 2-4 weeks, Murray is the
primary early-down back in an explosive offense.    

Maurice Morris
RB,?Lions
Morris, not Ronnie Brown, will be the lead back when Jahvid Best misses time due to another concussion.

Fred Davis
TE,?Redskins
Davis was featured last week even before Chris Cooley went down. Now he’ll push for 10 targets/game.

The post Carson Palmer, Brandon Lloyd moving appeared first on Metro.us.

Once the Broncos come out of their bye in Week 7, Tebow is going to be a poor real-life quarterback. He is wildly inaccurate, has awful mechanics and can barely even get the ball from center. He’ll also be a top-10 fantasy quarterback weekly. Here’s why:  

Goal-line back

If I told you a running back was going to get all his team’s carries inside the 5-yard line and average about 50 yards per game, would you be excited? Now add in about 25 pass attempts per game.

Much like Cam Newton in Carolina, Tebow is going to score rushing touchdowns weekly. Newton is currently fantasy’s No. 2 quarterback.            
          
History repeated

This isn’t Tebow’s first shot in the NFL. He started three games last season, averaging 217.0 yards passing, 66.3 yards rushing and he scored seven all-purpose touchdowns during that stint. That made Tebow fantasy’s No. 1 quarterback in that span. So, without further ado, it’s Tebow time. before his mere presence.

Top NFL pickups

Jackie Battle
RB, Chiefs
Battle is far from a special talent, but he’s a candidate for 10-15 carries behind an elite run-blocking line.    

Greg Little
WR,?Browns
Little is now the starting “X” receiver in Cleveland, meaning he’ll play every down. Explosive with the ball.

James Jones
WR,?Packers
Jones’s snap count is on the rise while Donald Driver’s is falling off. Jones has the raw ability to be No. 1 WR.

NFL stock watch

Need to turn your season around? Buy low on these guys:

1. Dez Bryant, WR, DAL — Bryant hasn’t been healthy in a game yet this season. Thanks to last week’s bye, that’s about to change. Megatron-like talent.   

2.   Chris Johnson, RB, TEN — The Titans’ say their No. 1 priority during their bye week is to fix the running game.

3. Vincent Jackson, WR, SD — Jackson     has only flashed his dominant potential so far. Philip Rivers is an annual slow starter.

The post Tim Tebow time: Get excited appeared first on Metro.us.

Week 1 is a time for unsubstantiated panic and regret. It’s not usually a time to make rash decisions. Therefore, we can attack some weak owners looking to bail on these guys already:     

Jackson’s five

Vincent Jackson had a 40-plus yard bomb land just inches in front of his hands in the end zone during Week 1. That won’t happen often. Philip Rivers remains one of the most aggressive vertical throwers in the game and Jackson is his best wideout. Buy up and reap rewards.   

OD on Daniels

The Texans jumped out to a huge lead against the Colts and sat on it. That left Daniels out in the cold. But now that Kevin Walter (shoulder) is hurt and the Texans will be playing teams that have an actual NFL quarterback going forward, the chances will be there.

CJ still 2K

The Titans have already admitted that they didn’t give Chris Johnson the ball enough in Week 1. Their offensive line also underperformed and the entire unit is adjusting to a new scheme. All these things can be corrected and will be shortly — as soon as this Sunday. He’s still the elite threat to lead the league in rushing, just like he was prior to the preseason holdout.

The post Do not fear the flukes appeared first on Metro.us.

In 2006, Tomlinson set the standard for fantasy seasons by scoring 31 touchdowns and piling up 2,323 total yards. Thanks to Vick’s unique talents, he can top that.

Projecting numbers

Vick started 12 games last season. If we project those stats over 16 games, he would have thrown for 4,024 yards, ran for 901 and racked up 40 total touchdowns. That obliterates Tomlinson’s 2006 campaign.       
          
A step ahead

Before last season, Vick hadn’t started a game since 2006. It’s very possible that he can get even more explosive and improve even more on his passing touch in 2011.      

The injury question

The reckless running style that makes Vick so good in fantasy is also his biggest drawback. But injury-prone? Vick missed just two games over his final three seasons with the Falcons and the lack of a flak jacket caused last year’s injury. In the middle of the first round, Vick’s upside is worth the risk.

NFL news
No Moreno?

Coach John Fox said that running back will be the Broncos’ No. 1 priority in free agency. It’s surprising — yet obvious — that the team isn’t sold on Knowshon Moreno as a workhorse back. Downgrade Moreno across the board.

MLB speed
Steals is an easy category to make up ground in. Add these guys cheaply:

1. Alex Presley, OF, PIT — Batting leadoff every day and sporting a .424 on-base percentage. Major prospect still has plenty of room to grow at age 25.

2. Cameron Maybin, OF, SD — Only 12 steals so far this year, but now fully healthy. Maybin will start running more.

3. Mike Trout, OF, LAA — Trout is worth holding while we see if he can hold off Peter Bourjos. Stole 56 bases in minors last year.


Top MLB pickups

Bobby Parnell, RP, Mets — With Francisco Rodriguez now a setup man in Milwaukee, Parnell is the favorite for saves in New York.    

Cory Luebke, SP,?Padres — Clayton Richard (shoulder) is shelved, locking Luebke into the rotation. He has a 64/18 K/BB ratio this season.

Luke Gregerson, RP, Padres — Heath Bell will likely be traded. Mike Adams is in the mix, but Gregerson is the long-term closing option.

The post Michael Vick: the best ever? appeared first on Metro.us.

Each year, there is a group of slow starters that suddenly catch fire. Plucking those players from desperate owners before that explosion leads to titles. Here are guys to target in trade talks:

Uggla being ugly

Dan Uggla’s first year in?Atlanta has been a debacle so far, as he sported a .196 batting average heading into Wednesday night. But April has been Uggla’s worst month throughout his career and he has hit at least 30 homers in four straight seasons. We can safely expect at least 20 homers coupled with a rising batting average from the ex-Marlin.

The other Gonzo

Those that took Carlos Gonzalez over Adrian Gonzalez are now realizing their mistake. However, Cargo’s 2010 breakout was not a fluke. He was one of the best prospects in the game, plus he hits in Coors. Relax.

Hanley’s demise?

Hanley Ramirez has been a consensus top-three fantasy pick for five straight years for a reason. He’s still only 27 and remains one of the few threats for 25 homers and 25 steals. Send in some offers.

Top MLB Pickups

Fernando Salas RP, Cardinals
The Cards appear to have settled on Salas for now to hold down their closer’s job. He has the stuff.   

Danny Duffy, SP, Royals
In 344 minor league innings, Duffy has struck out 402 batters. Big prospect that has a chance to stick.

Coco Crisp, OF, Athletics
When Coco is healthy, there are few better at racking up steals. Has 15-homer power to go with it.

The post Fantasy sports: On the verge of explosion appeared first on Metro.us.

Prospects like Hosmer are far from a sure thing, but we know that the veterans on your waiver wire won’t be special. Guys like Miguel Tejada, James Loney and J.A. Happ have no upside.

The best farmhands in baseball certainly do. Here are three players currently in the minors to monitor:

Brown to gold

The stars are starting to align for top Phillies prospect Domonic Brown. Ben Francisco and Raul Ibanez are struggling while Brown is healthy and raking at Triple-A. The Phils
entered Tuesday a mere 14th in the league in runs scored, highlighting the need for Brown.

Jennings’ wheels

Sam Fuld is a nice story and all, but Desmond Jennings is the future for the Rays. The 24-year-old is in his sixth season as a minor leaguer, giving him more than enough seasoning. Jennings has swiped 45 bags in his last 141 games.

Packing the Ack

The second-base spot is brutally thin this season. Enter Dustin Ackley, the No. 2 overall pick in the 2009 draft. The Mariners are a respectable 16-20 right now, but by midseason they’ll be way out of the race. Ackley should get the call.

Top MLB pickups

Chris Iannetta, C, Rockies
Getting power from the catcher position is so difficult. Iannetta, boosted by Coors Field, has hit 54 homers in his 373 career MLB games.  

Bud Norris, SP,?Astros
Norris has always been a strikeout machine, but he’s finally showing some control. It’s a lethal combination that makes Norris a high-upside option.  

Carlos Gomez, OF, Brewers
The ex-Mets prospect isn’t playing every single day, but he’s hitting with some pop. If he can sustain his .660 OPS, the speedster will play more than enough.

The post Fresh meat from the farm appeared first on Metro.us.

For now, all we have to go on is the rookie class. This group is not going to generate the fantasy hype that Ryan Mathews, C.J. Spiller and Dez Bryant did last year. But there are certainly some diamonds in the rough. Here are the best fantasy prospects:

Bye, bye Ronnie

Ideally, the Dolphins want to be a run-first team with Chad Henne as a game manager. Enter second-round pick Daniel Thomas, a physical runner out of Kansas State. Free agents Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown are goners, paving the way for Thomas to get 300 touches.

Ocho’s replacement

The Bengals have holes all over the field, but chose WR A.J. Green No. 4 overall. That speaks to how talented this kid is. Green will immediately step in as the first option on most passing plays. 

Hello, Helu

We all know what Mike Shanahan can do with unknown, one-cut runners. Talented fourth-rounder Roy Helu fits the bill perfectly. He’ll have little problem beating out incumbent Ryan Torain.

Rookie sleepers

Greg Little
WR, Browns

A physical beast who dropped due to character concerns. Steps in as the best WR?on the roster.  

Jake Locker
QB, Titans

If he wins the job, Locker will have weapons galore to make plays for him. He also has serious mobility.

Leonard Hankerson
WR, Redskins

With Santana Moss set for free agency, Hankerson has a good chance to be the No. 1 receiver in Week 1.

NFL veterans

The stock of these three veterans took a major hit in the draft:

1. Beanie Wells, RB, ARZ — The Cards had enough of Wells’ inconsistency and fumbles. No. 38 pick Ryan Williams is just as talented.

2. Jahvid Best, RB, DET — Concerns about durability led the Lions to take Mikel LeShoure 57th. Best’s scoring upside is now capped.

3. Chris Ivory, RB, NO — The Saints traded up to draft Mark Ingram 28th. He plays the exact same bruising style that Ivory excelled at.

The post First look: Impact NFL rookies appeared first on Metro.us.

Who is worth stashing on your disabled list depends on a handful of factors: The quality of the player, how long he’ll be out and how effective he projects to be upon return. Here are some guys to own:

Chase the upside

No one knows if we will get the real Chase Utley (knee) once he returns. But the mere chance that he could be 75 percent of his old self is worth the wait. At the thin second base spot, Utley has difference-making upside. The same can be said for Johan Santana. It’s an exceptional case.

Closers on the shelf

Guaranteed saves are always something worth stashing. Even guys like David Aardsma and Frank Francisco — and of course names such as young stud Andrew Bailey and veteran Brad Lidge. 

Stay at Bay

Sluggers with short-term injuries like Jason Bay can be a boost. Bay went 4-of-4 with two homers in the minors on Tuesday and looks ready for everyday action.

Top MLB pickups

Ty Wigginton, 3B, Rockies
With Ian Stewart demoted to the minors, the powerful Wigginton is going to get everyday at-bats.  

Jerry Sands, OF/1B, Dodgers
The 23-year-old has put James Loney on notice with his powerful bat. Talk about coming out of nowhere.

Cody Ross, OF, Giants
Now that prospect Brandon Belt has been sent down, Ross is going to play a ton in the outfield.

The post Fantasy sports: Injured but not irrelevant appeared first on Metro.us.

That’s because we always want to know what’s next. The unknown is cheaper and more exciting. Here are three youngsters off to hot starts that can sustain their breakout:

Starlin in the making

Starlin Castro just turned 21, but he is already at the core of the Cubs lineup. He hit .310 over 264 minor league games and could contend for the NL?batting title as soon as this season. After recently stating he wants to steal 25 to 30 bases, owners should be drooling.

Baby Felix

Mariners prospect Michael Pineda is drawing comparisons to teammate Felix Hernandez — and with good reason. Pineda is listed at 6-foot-7, 260 pounds, and has a flamethrower for an arm. He’ll benefit from pitching in Seattle’s cavernous park. 

Oh, Ogando

At one point in the spring, it looked like Alexi Ogando would be Texas’ closer. Now he’s starting with closer-quality stuff. He should be able to hold off Tommy Hunter all year.

Top pickups

Jason Motte, RP, Cardinals
With veteran Ryan Franklin struggling badly, Motte could end up as the closer before too long.

Zach Britton, SP,?Orioles
It’s tough to recommend a rookie in the AL East, but Britton is well worth spot starts. Nasty stuff.

The post Fantasy sports: Breakouts or flameouts? appeared first on Metro.us.

No matter how bad things look now, no one should be panicked. Most starters have at least 30 more outings to go. Hitters have 155 more games to rake.

The calm owner should be trying to take advantage of the nervous nancies. Some guys that are good bets to rebound from a slow start:

King Cole?

Cole Hamels is a notoriously poor starter out of spring training. Last season, he posted a 5.28 ERA in five April starts before going on a tear. Hamels ended up finishing with a sparkling 3.06 mark.

Messing with?Carl

It’s a little scary that the Red Sox are willing to drop Carl Crawford to the seven-hole against lefties, but this is just a case of an entire team slumping. The Sox were 0-4 heading into last night and are simply on the verge of busting out collectively. 

Magic Wandy

Going into Citizens Bank Park for a start against Cliff Lee is a recipe for disaster. With better spots on the horizon, Wandy Rodriguez will settle down and be just fine.

Top MLB pickups

Alex Gordon, OF/3B, Royals
After four straight years of disappointment, the former mega-prospect appears to finally “get it.”

Aaron Harang, SP,?Padres
We talked about targeting Padres pitching all winter. Harang will be a must-start when in Petco Park. 

Russell Martin, C, Yankees
When you play every day for the Yankees, runs and RBIs are going to be plentiful. Martin looks healthy.

The post Fantasy sports: Take it easy, Nervous Nancy appeared first on Metro.us.

As we enter the most popular draft weekend of the season, everyone should have a plan. Here are three points to stick by:

Play it safe early

You can’t win the league with your first three picks, but you certainly can lose it. Stay away from anyone with injury concerns (Chase Utley, Ian Kinsler, Josh Johnson) those with shaky track records (Matt Kemp) and those that don’t contribute across the board (Joe Mauer).

Wait on closers

Wasting early picks on elite closers is not optimal. There is just too much turnover at the position that can help the savvy owner later on. Target at least four lower-tier closers like Matt Thornton, J.J. Putz, Joe Nathan and Jonathan Broxton.

Speed to burn

Chicks dig the long ball. That’s why the big bats will rightfully come off the board before we should even think about speed. Getting steals later on with guys like Jacoby Ellsbury, Rajai Davis, Dexter Fowler and Brian Roberts is easier than finding brute power late.

The post Planning your fantasy baseball draft appeared first on Metro.us.

The idea should be to grab players that will outperform their draft position by a wide margin. The best way to accomplish this goal is with young, upside players on the verge of breaking out. Think Carlos Gonzalez from 2010.

Here are this year’s candidates for major leaps forward:

Andrew the Great

Some may think that Andrew McCutchen has already broken out. He hasn’t. The megatalented five-tool outfielder projects to bat in the middle of the order and take a leap forward in the power department.

The magic Wand

Players’ overall numbers are often a poor reflection of their season. In 2010, Wandy Rodriguez went 5-1 with a 2.11 ERA after the All-Star break but 6-11 with a 4.97 ERA?before it. He has elite stuff.

Another Miguel

The catcher position is deeper than most people think this year. The crafty drafter will wait and then pounce on an upside guy like Miguel Montero. Although he is yet to put it all together, the Diamondbacks’ unquestioned starter is very capable of 20 homers.

MLB sleepers

Each week in this space, we’ll hand out three upside players that can be had late in drafts:

1 Pedro Alvarez, 3B, PIT — Beastly power that is on the rise at age 24. He could reach 35 jacks from the hot corner.

2 Daniel Hudson, SP, ARZ — Ian Kennedy will start Opening Day, but Hudson is the true ace of the staff. Major breakout candidate.

3 J.P. Arencibia, C, TOR — If you choose to wait on a catcher, this is your sleeper. The rookie’s average will be weak, but lots of power.

The post Drafting before the big breakout appeared first on Metro.us.

They are all just one bad week from losing their job. Ask formerly elite fireballers Jonathan Broxton and Jonathan Papelbon about that.

We can compensate on draft day by racking up as many low-end save candidates as possible.

By not investing a lot, we don’t lose a lot if/when they implode. Here are three to target after you have stockpiled hitting and starting pitching:

Moving on up

Chicago’s Matt Thornton has been one of the game’s best setup men, compiling a sub-3.00 ERA in each of the last three seasons. Now he has been promoted to the closer’s chair. He’ll solidify the White Sox’s bullpen.

Not a Putz

Let’s not forget how effective J.J. Putz can be when healthy. He saved 40 games for the Mariners a few years back and has virtually no competition for Arizona’s gig this year.

National relief

Drew Storen was overshadowed by Stephen Strasburg a year ago, but the 23-year-old has nasty stuff of his own. He will have no problem eventually separating from Tyler Clippard.

MLB sleepers

Each week in this space, we’ll hand out three upside players that can be had late in drafts:

1 Freddie Freeman, 1B, ATL – One of the best hitting prospects in baseball, Freeman is projected to play every day out of the gate.

2 Ian Desmond, SS, WAS – At a thin position, Desmond will give his owners 20 home run and 20 steal upside on the cheap.

3 Chris Davis, 1B, TEX — It’s a do or die season for Davis. His power potential is worth gambling on with your last pick.

The post Fantasy baseball grand larceny: Closers appeared first on Metro.us.

Simply settling for big names on draft day leads to two big problems: You have to overpay for name value, and these players have often already hit their career peak.

Here are three big names to let someone else reach for during your draft:  

Oy, captain
Derek Jeter is going to score runs and rack up a ton of at-bats atop the Yankees’ lineup but expecting a bounce-back at age 36 is unrealistic. Jeter’s career-worst OPS and batting average last season are huge red flags. If you miss out on one of the top four shortstops, take a late flier on Ian Desmond,?Starlin Castro or Asdrubal Cabrera before reaching for Jeter.

Joe the catcher
There is no doubt that Joe Mauer is a special player at a scarce position. But can we really justify a top-25 pick on a player that will hover around 10 homers and 80 RBIs with no steals? Swing for the fences with those first few picks.

The wrong Roy
Using a brand new changeup at age 32, Roy Oswalt sparkled as a Phillie in the second half last year. But now that hitters are prepared for it, Oswalt figures to slide back down the hill. Remember that prior to 2010, Oswalt’s ERA had risen in four straight seasons. 

The post Fantasy Baseball: Beware big names, risky games appeared first on Metro.us.