Expert NFL Mock: Part 2

In case you missed Part 1 of this series (shame on you), click here for analysis of Rounds 1 though 3. This is a half-PPR, 12-team draft. It included Gregg Rosenthal, Evan Silva and Chris Wesseling of Rotoworld.com along with fantasy author Mark St. Amant, Chet Gresham of Razzball.com and others. I had the ninth pick.

ROUND 4
1. Marques Colston
2. Dwayne Bowe
3. Ahmad Bradshaw
4. Dez Bryant (my pick)
5. DeAngelo Williams
6. Antonio Gates
7. Matt Ryan
8. Mark Ingram
9. Tom Brady
10. Kenny Britt
11. Mike Williams (TB)
12. Matt Schaub

Notes: There are a lot of picks here I really don’t like.
*Marques Colston is coming off another knee surgery and his ability to separate is in question.
*Dwayne Bowe feasted on awful pass defenses last year and posted an unsustainable catch/TD rate. I don’t want him.
*Ahmad Bradshaw is going to lose carries no matter where he ends up – if it’s back in New York, Brandon Jacobs earned a larger role late last season.
*With the tight end position so deep, I’m not reaching for Antonio Gates this year.
*Same can be said for Matt Ryan — it’s just too early with guys like Matthew Stafford, Tony Romo and Tim Tebow lurking in the back.
* Mike Williams is not going to sustain his touchdown rate from his amazing rookie year either. It’s just not possible.
* I don’t think Mark Ingram is going to be the feature back everyone wants him to be. Pierre Thomas still fits that offense better as the receiver out of the backfield.

In this round, I think we can reach for upside of guys like Dez Bryant and Kenny Britt.

ROUND 5
1. Wes Welker
2. Daniel Thomas
3. Percy Harvin
4. Jahvid Best
5. Tony Romo
6. Brandon Lloyd
7. Cedric Benson
8. Jermichael Finley
9. Jason Witten (my pick)
10. Santonio Holmes
11. Vernon Davis
12. Dallas Clark

NOTES: I like Daniel Thomas more than fellow rookie Mark Ingram. We’ll see what the Dolphins do in free agency, but for now Thomas is penciled in as the workhorse. … Jahvid Best is going to slip a lot because of Mikel Leshoure’s presence. I still like him if you’re in a PPR format. … I was hoping for Jermichael Finley, who is my No. 1 tight end. But I’ll settle for the consistent beast that is Jason Witten. You can see the tight end run going down here, although I don’t hate waiting on TE and taking someone like Zach Miller, Marcedes Lewis or Owen Daniels later. … I wouldn’t touch Cedric Benson — he’s just not that good and is old. … Percy Harvin is a playmaker. Solid pick there.

ROUND 6
1. Sidney Rice
2. Mike Tolbert
3. Owen Daniels
4. Matthew Stafford (my pick)
5. Steve Smith (CAR)
6. Knowshon Moreno
7. Jimmy Graham
8. Steve Johnson
9. Michael Crabtree
10. Anquan Boldin
11. Julio Jones
12. Pierre Garcon

NOTES: I don’t recommend reaching for Stafford like this in your home league. I do recommend getting him on your roster. I just knew that my opponents in this league are very aggressive with upside guys and we all are high on Stafford. If I wanted him, I needed to grab him here. … Knowshon Moreno is falling out of favor in Denver and could be relegated to third-down duty if they sign DeAngelo Williams. … Great value here on Michael Crabtree, who has tons of talent but a diva personality. Perhaps he’ll “get it” this year. I like Austin Collie way more than Pierre Garcon. Garcon has butterfingers. … Rookie receivers rarely get me going, and Julio Jones is no exception. He’ll start, but Roddy White is going to hog targets in a run-first offense. … I already mentioned Owen Daniels, but I really like him. Now two years removed from ACL surgery, he can regain the form that had him as the No. 1 TE halfway through the 2009 season.


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