How many points is a fumble worth?
The Chargers had the game won last Monday night. If Philip Rivers doesn’t choke and inexplicably drop a snap, they win. Period. Instead, they lost in overtime.
The key question we should be asking, then, is what would the line for Sunday’s Week 9 game against the Packers have been if the Chargers won in Week8? Luckily, we have an answer for that.
At the Las Vegas Hilton, the Packers were available at -3.5 last Tuesday. Now, they are -6. That’s because people watched the Monday night game, watched the Chargers choke and now want to bet against them. That’s the kind of reactionary, short-sighted strategy that is best avoided.
If the Chargers had won that game — as they essentially did, the line probably would have held at Packers -3.5 or maybe even -3. So now, thanks to a fluky fumble, we can grab three extra points on the Chargers. It’s like stealing points.