Super Bowl: Rooting for the bookies

Get your bets in before Sunday!

It’s not a coincidence bookies drive through town in BMWs and Vegas casinos build multibillion-dollar gambling palaces. The house wins. 

So maybe we should stop trying to analyze the matchups, injuries, home-field advantage and who is hot. Perhaps a more effective strategy would be to simply figure out what the bookies want to happen, and then bet on their side.

The folks at SportsInsights.com do that, tracking the number of bets that come in on each side at six independent major offshore books. Using that info, they decipher who is pushing the line and thus what those books are rooting for.

“You want to follow the sharp money, you want to follow the Warren Buffetts of our industry,” said Dan Fabrizio, the president of SportsInsights. “Not the other way around.”

Sunday’s game between the Patriots and Giants sticks out to Fabrizio, and not just because it’s the Super Bowl. As of Thursday, 61 percent of bets were coming in on the underdogs from New York.

“That’s very rare. Typically, you’ll see the favorite getting the majority of public bets,” said Fabrizio. “I would say nine times out of 10 it’s going to be on the favorite.”

Everyone and their grandmother wagers the Super Bowl, so the line appears to be getting pushed by unsophisticated, or “square” bettors. After opening at Patriots minus-3.5 in most spots, the line has gone to minus-3 and minus-2.5 in some shops.

SportsInsights is recommending a play on the Patriots at minus-2.5. No one knows if that will hit, but we do know that they will be cheering when the bookies cheer.

Prop bets

1. Will Kelly Clarkson’s bare belly be showing during the national anthem? You’ll get 3-1 odds, but that’s a bad bet. After Janet’s malfunction, no way we’ll get a peek.

2. How many times will Peyton Manning be shown on TV during? The over/under is 3.5, making the over a strong play. Between Eli, the neck and Peyton’s impending release, this is like free money.

3. Who will the Super Bowl MVP thank first? The favorite is “teammates” at 5/4, but the value play is “Does not thank anyone” at 5/2. These guys have to look out for No. 1.

4. Who will have more points: Paul Pierce or the Patriots? The Pats are getting 3.5 and the smart money is on them. Pierce is up against defensive stopper Tony Allen.
*Courtesy of Bovada.lv and Sportsbook.ag



News
Entertainment
Sports
Lifestyle
Local

MAP: New York City Street Closures August 22,…

The Percy Sutton Harlem 5K and NYC Family Health Walk-a-thon and Pakistan Day Parade and Fair will cause traffic delays and street closures in New York City this weekend. Plan…

International

U.N. nuclear inquiry on Iran seen making slow…

The U.N. nuclear watchdog appears to have made only limited progress so far in getting Iran to answer questions about its suspected atomic bomb research, diplomatic sources said on Friday,…

National

Violence-weary Missouri town sees second night of calm

By Nick Carey and Carey GillamFERGUSON Mo. (Reuters) - The violence-weary town of Ferguson, Missouri, saw a second straight evening of relative calm on Thursday…

National

Journalist James Foley's parents, after call with pope,…

The parents of James Foley, the American journalist killed by Islamic State militants in Iraq, on Friday called for prayer and support to free the remaining captives held by Islamic…

Television

Recap: 'The Knick,' Season 1, Episode 3, 'The…

The third episode of Steven Soderbergh's "The Knick" finds Dr. Thackery (Clive Owen) meeting an old flame and other characters embracing self-destruction.

Music

Webcast: Watch Polyphonic Spree live on Sunday Aug.…

Polyphonic Spree singer Tim DeLaughter sits with Metro Music Editor Pat Healy for a chat and then the big band performs live. It begins on Sunday at 9:30 pm

Movies

Matthew Weiner on directing 'Are You Here' and…

"Mad Men" creator Matthew Weiner discusses his movie "Are You Here," his history writing comedy and the tiny movie he directed in 1996 you can't see.

Movies

Michael Chiklis on his football past and 'When…

Michael Chiklis remembers playing football in high school and how that prepped him to play a coach in "When the Game Stands Tall."

NFL

Fantasy football draft guide: How to draft your…

Many are wondering if we’re entering a new age in fantasy football drafting — one where running backs take a backseat.

NFL

Jets vs. Giants: 3 Giants storylines to watch

The Giants have plenty to work on as they reach the dress rehearsal preseason game Friday night against the rival Jets.

NFL

Jets vs. Giants: 3 Jets storylines to watch

Metro looks at three Jets storylines to watch as they play the Giants Friday.

NFL

Giants expected to work Corey Washington into first-team…

The day of reckoning for the Giants' fringe players will fall upon them Friday night against the Jets.

Sex

Big weddings may lead to long-term happiness

Dreaming of a big wedding? A new study indicates that the longer your guest list, the happier you’ll be in the long run. l A…

Sex

Online dating for every generation

Frank Jackson and his mother Maggie are like lots of modern families: They have dinner together regularly, keep each other updated on their lives —…

Wellbeing

Going green could be the key to getting…

If we could just pursue the things that would actually make us happy, we could help the environment too, according to a New York researcher.…

Tech

Siren: A new dating app that puts women…

Online dating can be brutal, especially for single women. Noting that many women hate wading through inappropriate messages and photos, two tech entrepreneurs decided to…