Bay State home sales prediction: All-time low

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Bay State home sales in September rose for the third consecutive month but analysts still predict that 2011 will likely have the worst sales numbers in two decades.

In September, 3,482 single-family homes sold in Massachusetts, up from 3,267 in September 2010, according to The Warren Group, publishers of Banker & Tradesman. Sales increased approximately 10 percent in the third quarter of this year compared to the same time period in 2010, but year-to-date sales are still down 10 percent.

“It’s encouraging to see another month of sales increases. However, sales volume remains low because we are comparing to a period last year when sales dropped off after the tax credits expired,” says Timothy M. Warren Jr., CEO of The Warren Group. “At this rate, it is almost certain that 2011 sales volume will be one of the slowest years in recent memory.”

The median price of a single-family home increased to $289,950, a 0.5 percent jump from last year’s September. However, this is the first time since April that the median price statewide plummeted below  $300,000, according to The Warren Group. Overall, the year-to-date sales price was also lower — dropping 1.3 percent from 2010.

In September, condo sales declined 2.6 percent from 2010 and year-to-date sales showed a 20 percent decline. The median condo price, however, increased almost 5 percent, according to the study.



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