Prediction Machine gives Seahawks 23-21 win in Super Bowl XLVIII
Now that we know the score for Super Bowl XLVIII, fans won’t even have to watch the game.
According to 50,000 simulations run on PredictionMachine.com, the Seahawks will beat the Broncos this Sunday in the Super Bowl in what the website says will be one of the closest Super Bowls of all time. According to 50,000 game simulations, the Seahawks will win 23-21.
And Seahawaks quarterback Russell Wilson will outgun Peyton Manning, who will be seeking his second Super Bowl win in what has been a storied career.
“For this upcoming game in which we have the Seahawks winning outright, the edge that Seattle has is clear. The Seahawks are the more complete team. Denver has very obvious, elite strengths — simply stated, pass offense, special teams and run defense — that are relatively better than any of Seattle’s strengths. However, Denver also has glaring weaknesses — pass defense, run offense efficiency, turnover margin — and Seattle does not,” said Paul Bessire, general manager of PredictionMachine.com.
“The key to this game appears to be the matchup between Russell Wilson and the Seattle passing attack versus the Denver pass defense. The analysis suggests that Wilson will make the one or two big plays need to win an otherwise even game. In our simulated box score, Wilson actually throws for more yards per pass and fewer interceptions than Peyton Manning, though Manning throws for more yards.”
The science behind PredictionMachine.com, which has an 8-1-1 record against the spread this postseason, is intriguing and beyond thorough.
To come up with this result, the Predictalator simulates each play of the Super Bowl, involving the 22 likely players on the field at that specific time. Players are given rankings based on certain attributes, with that skillset derived from their level of play in college and now the NFL. More weight is given to recent performances.
Then the 11 players on each team are thrown onto the field, where each game and each play is simulated 50,000 times. From special teams to offense and defense, each move is calculated.
It all begins with a simulated coin toss.
“On the next play, upon the snap, we will assess the likelihood of a run or a pass, draw a random number and determine the actual outcome based on how that number relates to the odds,” Bessire said. “Then we move on to who gets the ball, what he does with it, how his team impacts his output and what the defense does to affect the play. The technology moves on to the next play until the game is over. Repeat 49,999 more times.”
The Seahawks win 54.8 percent of the time in the simulations, with the average over/under set at 47 points. Vegas odds have the point spread at Denver minus-2 with the over/under at 47.
The Predictalator is 3-1 in Super Bowls all time and is 34-9-2 against the spread in the playoffs.
Follow Jets beat writer Kristian Dyer on Twitter @KristianRDyer.