Fantasy football: Don’t fall for last year’s statistics

Knowshon Moreno
Knowshon Moreno has moved to Miami.
Credit: Getty Images

You won’t get any points for last year’s stats. It’s amazing how many NFL fantasy owners forget that simple concept on draft day.

A surefire way to blow your chances at winning the league is to blindly look at the 2013 season and expect the same thing in 2014. In many instances, past performance is not an indicator of future results. Chase the tails of these guys and get burned.

No on Knowshon

Knowshon Moreno was arguably the MVP of the 2013 fantasy season, coming off the waiver wire to finish as fantasy’s No. 5 running back. But the NFL knew that was a product of Peyton Manning, as Moreno only could muster a one-year, $3 million contract in free agency. Now Moreno is running behind Lamar Miller in Miami and is a poor bet to get near 1,000 yards. Let someone else think his Broncos “breakout” was for real.

Changing stripes

Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton has the talent of a good game manager. But under pass-happy offensive coordinator Jay Gruden, he was allowed to throw the ball 586 times — eighth-most in the league. That led to a shocking QB5 finish in fantasy.

With Gruden now in Washington, new offensive coordinator Hue Jackson is going to reel Dalton in. He’ll be more of a caretaker, seeing his attempts slashed while watching Gio Bernard and Jeremy Hill carry the load. Dalton is a backup at the deepest position in fantasy.

“E” is for empty

The Patriots targeted Julian Edelman 105 times last season out of necessity more than desire. If it weren’t for Aaron Hernandez’s murders, Rob Gronkowski’s inability to stay on the field, Shane Vereen’s wrist injury and Danny Amendola’s groin woes, he never would have emerged as a PPR stud. Tom Brady knows that in order to put crooked numbers on the board, he needs a more diverse attack that doesn’t just check down to Edelman. Expect something closer to 70 catches than 100.

MLB pickups …

1. Colby Rasmus, OF, Blue Jays — He will provide some cheap power as he nears a return from a hamstring pull.

2. Andrew Heaney, SP, Marlins — The sparkling prospect with a 2.47 minor league ERA will make his MLB debut Thursday.

3. Drew Stubbs, OF, Rockies — Injuries to Carlos Gonzalez and Michael Cuddyer mean regular at-bats for Stubbs in Coors.

MLB trade deadline …

It’s time to start thinking about how players likely to get moved by the July 31 deadline will be affected:

1. David Price, SP, Rays — Price is currently supported by one of the game’s best defenses and a pitcher-friendly park. It is hard to see him doing much better.

2. Jeff Samardzija, SP Cubs — Samardzija has a 2.77 ERA while averaging nearly seven innings per start, but owns a 2-6 record. Playing with a contender would help.

3. Jimmy Rollins, SS, Phillies — The 35-year-old Rollins is a .250 hitter now, so we need power numbers. Leaving tiny Citizens Bank Park is trouble.

Follow Metro fantasy writer Adam Levitan on Twitter @adamlevitan.



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