Green: Brand new ballgame for Matsuzaka

There’s been a swarm of questions buzzing around Daisuke Matsuzaka all year. Is he worth the money? Could he be Rookie of the Year? Is he overrated? Thirty-two starts, 15 wins and 12 losses later, we’re still baffled. Tonight’s performance could finally provide us with an answer. What kind of answer, however, depends on another question: which Dice-K will show up? The Matsuzaka of  204 2/3 innings pitched and 201 strikeouts? Or the Matsuzaka of the 4.40 ERA and 80 walks?

Matsuzaka has had an inconsistent 2007, and his numbers reflect this chaos. For instance, his numbers with a man on third are abysmal. Unless there’s also a runner on second — because any time Matsuzaka has a runner on second, he suddenly becomes lights-out. (Mechanics issue, anyone?) Likewise, he’s been intimidating against the three- and four-batters in opposing lineups, and dreadful against the five and six batters. Moreover, his numbers at Fenway (4.86 ERA) are slightly worse than his numbers away (4.02 ERA). There’s also a difference in his day/night splits: a 3.54 ERA in day games, a 4.70 ERA at night. But — mysteriously — despite the better numbers on the road and during the day, he actually has a losing record in those games. At home and at night, his ERA may be bloated, but so is his winning percentage. And his best game (nine innings pitched, one run on a solo homer, six scattered hits) came at night and at the Fens. Go figure.

Nevertheless, tonight’s game is not a total crapshoot. He has not faced the Angels before, but take heart from his performance during interleague play. The Halos play a National League, small-ball type game, and Matsuzaka pitched much better against NL teams this year.

If he has one of his sudden meltdowns — a borderline pitch called a ball, a bad call by the ump, a defensive miscue — brace yourself, because the wheels could come off. Mainly, this has meant issuing walks. But he’s also struggled with his pitch selection. To be effective, he needs to rely on his breaking stuff, not his fastball. And he has a chronic problem with prematurely heading towards the dugout when he thinks he’s got a called third strike. I’m sure that tendency isn’t helping him expand his strike zone — after all, umpires are only human.

But if Matsuzaka gets into those 0-2, 1-2 or 2-2 counts, prepare to watch opposing batters flail. Once he can smell the strikeout, he becomes deadly. In those circumstances, batters are hitting well under .200 against him. And, though he’s sometimes had to battle through the middle innings, he’s been very good in close and late situations.

So, Daisuke’s first season in the majors has been an adjustment year. But you know what they say about the playoffs: it’s a whole new season.

Sarah Green is a freelance writer who can be reached at sgreen@gmail.com.