Papi’s trouble? It can traced to his BABIP

Injuries and slumps are the death and taxes of baseball: inevitable. All the same, when a slump strikes, it’s hard not to seek an explanation. Take David Ortiz. Thus far, I’ve heard commentators and fans alike question his knee surgery; the supposed heart murmurs; his mental state; his weight; his eyesight; even his Vitamin Water endorsements. What’s next? His supply of mango salsa?

When a slump emerges, the first explanation I turn to is one of my favorite statistics: batting average on balls in play, or BABIP. The theory is simple: once wood hits horsehide, does the ball drop for a hit? A hitter’s speed, bat control and line drive percentage can affect this, while for a pitcher, the percentage of line drives he allows and the caliber of the defense behind him can also make a difference. But mostly, BABIP is a measure of a very hard-to-quantify element: luck.

An average BABIP is .290. It will be lower for a good pitcher and higher for a good hitter. When Eric Gagne was with the Texas Rangers last year, his BABIP was an artificially low .236. When he joined the Red Sox, the law of averages caught up with him and his BABIP ballooned to an unsightly .439. The rest is history.

So while it’s possible that Ortiz is hurt or overcommitted or that he’s run out of his favorite condiment, I think it’s more likely Ortiz is just suffering from some bad juju. Big Papi, with a career BABIP of .310, went into Monday night’s game with a miniscule BABIP of .063. Three bloop singles later, his average was .113, and his BABIP had risen to .125.

And at this time of year, he’s hardly alone. Heading into last night, Jason Giambi’s had a BABIP of .038. Unsurprisingly, several of the beleaguered Tigers have low BABIPs, including Gary Sheffield and Miguel Cabrera. Sadly, in Chicago, Alfonso Soriano has already been called “selfish” by a local columnist, in contrast to newcomer Kosuke Fukudome, who “plays the game the right way.” But a more accurate adjective for the now-injured Soriano would be “unfortunate,” considering his anemic BABIP of .182, while Fukudome would correctly be called “blessed,” with a robust BABIP of .385. It all comes back to a hoary bit of baseball wisdom: hit ’em where they ain’t. Right now, a lot of good hitters are hitting ’em where they is.

Slumps, like taxes, don’t discriminate: sooner or later, we all gotta pay. The law of averages dictates that what comes around, goes around. Sometime soon, Big Papi’s luck will return. And then it will be someone else’s turn to pay.