These Lakers have a great chance to win a title together, but it won’t come this season. The Celtics are playing with the swagger they had in the regular season, and no challenge is too big for them anymore. They’re dominant at home and confident on the road, and their defense is far superior to the Lakers. The Celtics win the series in six games -- taking the first two at home, Game 4 in Los Angeles and closing out the series in Boston.
PREVIEW. Off the court, there’s enough material to hype three or four seven-game series between the C’s and Lakers. But on the court, basketball junkies are geeked up over all of the potential individual matchups like MIT students looking at the Pythagorean Theorem. Here’s how we see each position breaking down:
Center
Kendrick Perkins needs to do two things in this series: dominate the boards and stay out of foul trouble against the Lakers’ quicker, more athletic big men. If Perkins struggles, he’ll get the quick pull so the Celtics can use James Posey on Kobe Bryant. Pau Gasol is averaging 17.7 points, 8.9 rebounds and 4.2 assists per game in the postseason, but he’s gaining attention with his knack for coming up with timely offensive rebounds. His scoring will come, but the Celtics can’t let Gasol kill them on the boards.
Edge: Lakers
Power Forward
Kevin Garnett will be able to outmuscle any big man the Lakers throw at him, so the Celtics need to establish him on the block early each game. At the very least, lesser defenders Pau Gasol and Lamar Odom could get into quick foul trouble, effectively taking away one of their versatile scoring options. Odom has lost his cool twice against the Celtics this season and was assessed a Flagrant 2 foul for attempting to decapitate Ray Allen. If Garnett can get into Odom’s head — a la Rasheed Wallace — Odom could do more harm than good to his own team.
Edge: Celtics
Small Forward
Paul Pierce will draw a rash of defenders in the same extent as Kobe Bryant. If the Celtics are going to win this series, Pierce needs to keep his aggressiveness on offense and is our pick to win Finals MVP. Oh, and he’ll be defending Bryant. Vladimir Radmanovic will start at small forward for the Lakers, but he’ll split time with Sasha Vujacic. Both players are more valuable for their defense but can knock down outside jumpers if they get into a rhythm.
Edge: Celtics
Shooting Guard
In the playoffs, Kobe Bryant is leading the Lakers with 31.9 points, 5.8 assists, 22.1 shot attempts and 40 minutes per game, and he’s the most complete offensive player in the NBA today. He’ll likely spend most of his time guarding Ray Allen, who has effectively ended his postseason shooting woes. He is averaging 23 points and four 3-pointers in his last two games and will probably spend the majority of his defensive shifts away from Bryant.
Edge: Lakers
Point Guard
This is the only one-on-one matchup you can consistently count on. Derek Fisher has won three championships, is unfazed by clutch moments and can get hot from the outside. He’s the fourth highest scorer on the Lakers in the playoffs with 10.0 points per game, but strangely, he’s only averaging 2.2 assists in the postseason, fifth on the team. Rajon Rondo needs to keep his motor going, starting on defense and continuing on the glass. He should also be able to cut through the lane against the Lakers with more regularity than other playoff opponents.
Edge: Slightly to Lakers
Bench
James Posey will play a huge role and could find himself playing close to 30 minutes per game while the Celtics try to stay fresh guarding Kobe Bryant. While P.J. Brown and either Sam Cassell or Eddie House will see plenty of time off the bench, look for Leon Powe to get a few more minutes because of his value on offense and his ability to get physical against L.A.’s softer bigs. The Lakers have found a very valuable sixth man in Sasha Vujacic, and at times they’ll need Ronny Turiaf to play over his head against Kevin Garnett. Jordan Farmar is a worthy backup for Derek Fisher, and Luke Walton is a nice offensive option off the bench. Edge: Celtics
Coaching
Phil Jackson has won nine championships (complete with six thank-you notes to Michael Jordan and three to Shaquille O’Neal), and is the master strategist. Doc Rivers just won his first three playoff series and is superb with meshing egos and delegating responsibility. Still, the numbers are the story here.
Edge: Lakers