Green: Trying to read the postseason tea leaves

With the Angels making their fifth playoff run in the last seven years, you could look at their 100-win season and the way they breezed into the AL West title weeks ago and see them as a juggernaut. Or you could look at the quality of the AL West and see them as jokers, not aces. So how worried should Sox fans be?

Over the course of the regular season, despite the Angels’ better record, Boston had, by far, the more potent offense. Boston also had a better pitching staff and a more efficient defense. Statistically, this matchup shouldn’t even be close.

Nonetheless, the playoffs obey laws unto themselves. Who had a better year doesn’t matter as much as which team is hotter right now. The Angels went 17-9 in September, the Sox 16-10. That might look pretty close to even, but the Red Sox actually had a better run differential for the month (runs scored minus runs allowed), even including the 19-8 drubbing they suffered last weekend. So in terms of who’s playing better now, I’ll grant the slimmest of edges to the Red Sox.

But the determining question could be: who’s healthier? Here, there’s no question that the Angels have an advantage over the Red Sox. J.D. Drew (back), who could’ve been a legit MVP candidate if he’d stayed healthy, Mike Lowell (hip), who was last year’s World Series MVP, and Josh Beckett (oblique), who posted a 1.20 ERA in last year’s playoffs, will all have to hit the ground running. Three thousand miles away, the Angels are a pretty healthy bunch, with the possible exception of Halo hurler Joe Saunders, who missed a start in September with a kidney stone. Nevertheless, in his last start, Saunders struck out nine in six innings, walked one and gave up just two hits. Beckett? His last outing saw him walk a guy, hit three more, and throw a wild pitch. He’d probably rather have had the kidney stone.

When Big Papi comes to the plate in the ninth after going 0-for-4 we all tell ourselves, “Well, he’s due.” Similarly, the Red Sox have lost to the Angels eight times out of nine this season. So I’m feeling strongly inclined to say, “They’re due.” But then again, “10th time’s a charm!” doesn’t exactly fill me with confidence. And maybe it’s the Angels who are due: they’ve lost nine straight postseason games to the Red Sox.

So with other scribes predicting the Angels will win in five, or the Sox will triumph in four, I’m still having a tough time making any predictions either way. Trying to read these tea leaves has only made it harder. So call it a cop out, but I think this one’s just too close to call.