The populist Oscars?

Economic shifts in Hollywood could shake the Academy Awards

ROUNDUP. For your consideration in all categories: “Iron Man.” The thought may stupefy some Hollywood insiders, but the idea of a big summer blockbuster crashing the gate at the Academy Awards in February and walking out with some hardware isn’t as barmy as it sounds. In fact, it’s looking increasingly likely. The New York Times reported Oct. 27 that Paramount is “weighing an Oscar Push” for its surprise superhero smash. Meanwhile, publications from Variety to Entertainment Weekly have speculated that Pixar’s “WALL-E” will become only the second animated film ever nominated for best picture, and no less an authority than Michael Caine summed up industry opinion when he said of his late “The Dark Knight” co-star Heath Ledger, “He’s going to get an Oscar for this.” (“This” being his portrayal of a comic-book villain once played on TV by Caesar Romero).

So what gives? Gold statuettes are supposed to go to December movies starring Philip Seymour Hoffman, not July movies staring a cartoon robot, right?

“It goes in waves,” Jim Morris, producer of “WALL-E,” says. “‘Titanic’ and ‘The Lord of the Rings’ were popular films that also won best picture. In other years, it’s been more art-house oriented. But it’s always strange for people watching the Academy Awards when some movie they never heard of wins.”

And truly, these have been strange times. The four best-picture winners to follow 2004’s “The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King” earned a combined $361 million — or $16 million less than their predecessor alone. But according to the Los Angeles Times’ Scott Feinberg, the days of the fashionably poor may be at an end.

“There are fewer Academy-type movies being made, because there are fewer boutique divisions making those movies,” he says, pointing to the shuttering this year of awards-heavy studios such as Picturehouse and Warner Independent. “Of course it’s going to have an impact on the types of movies that get nominated.”

Enter the Joker. With the economy failing and studios under pressure to make every film a hit, Oscar may find it has no choice but to cuddle up to the blockbusters it’s been neglecting. But Feinberg preaches caution.

“I wouldn’t expect ‘Iron Man’ to take home best picture just because it made a zillion dollars,” he says. “But you’re going to have to start taking some of these movies seriously, because there are going to be fewer alternatives.”