Updated 01:52, June the 25th, 2009
What will Celtics do?
According to Danny Ainge’s research, there’s a 0.3 percent chance of selecting a successful player with the 58th pick in tonight’s NBA draft.
The Celtics’ president of basketball operations has combed through every draft since 1986 to compile statistical evidence that weighs the likelihood of selecting a productive player at each draft position.
Those odds aren’t overwhelmingly positive for the Celtics, who enter the 7:30 p.m. draft with the 58th pick — and that’s it.
Ainge didn’t exactly give a ringing endorsement to this draft class, either, tabbing it as “one of the worst” he has seen during his time in the Boston front office.
With that, it could be a pretty uneventful night at the Celtics’ Causeway Street offices.
Let’s evaluate their possible strategy:
15% CHANCE THEY’LL STAND PAT AT 58:
Whoever the Celtics take at No. 58 won't have a chance to crack the lineup, so they'll likely employ the same philosophy as last year, when they took Semih Erden with the 60th pick and told him to keep working on his game in Turkey.This way, they don't have to pay a player to sit on their bench, and they'd still own the player's rights once he decides to move to the NBA. If the C's use the 58th pick, they'll be looking overseas.
2% CHANCE THEY’LL TRADE UP INTO A LOTTERY PICK:
Ainge has no interest in mortgaging one of his starters to acquire a lottery pick that would be a long-term project.
"We're certainly not doing anything this year to get a draft pick that‚s a developmental project that is going to prevent us from winning a championship this year," Ainge said.
While there have been multiple trade rumors involving the Celtics, few, if any, have any substance.
"We have not made any efforts to get any of the top picks," Ainge said. We've had discussion.
We're certainly not willing to pay the price it would take to get a top pick.
50% CHANCE THEY’LL JUST BUY A PICK:
Even if the Celtics don‚t want to trade any assets to move up in the draft, that doesn't mean they aren't willing to buy a pick from another team, which they did last year to select Billy Walker.If an NBA-ready player with size say, Pitt's Sam Young or North Carolina's Tyler Hansbrough slips into the bottom half of the first round, Ainge could persuade a team to sell its draft pick. He said there has been a lot of talk around the league of dumping picks for cash because of the economy, and someone will greatly benefit from that tonight.
33% CHANCE THEY WON’T MAKE A PICK AT ALL:
If the Celtics can‚t find an acceptable price to pay to select one of the players they covet earlier in the draft, look for them to maximize their efforts to unload the 58th pick, whether they try to add a selection in a future draft or just sell it to another team.
"There's not a need in drafting somebody that is not as good as the players you have," Ainge said.
The C's are already working on the development of Gabe Pruitt, J.R. Giddens and Billy Walker. There is little reason to add another youngster to the roster who wouldn't earn valuable minutes.
"It can be pretty boring compared to what we've been through the last few years on draft day," Ainge said of tonight's prospects. "We have a very good team right now." "I guess that's a good position to be in."