Tough to top Lester-Beckett 1-2 punch

 

Sarah Green

sarah@umpbump.com

 

Much of the debate about whether the Red Sox should acquire unquestioned ace Roy Halladay have come down to a discussion of one Jonathan Tyler Lester. Is he an ace? Is he an acceptable No. 2 for a team pushing for their third championship in six years? Or is he, at best, a decent No. 3?

Lester has a decent 9-7 record and a pretty good 3.79 ERA. While he lasted 7 1/3 innings in Saturday’s game, he’s usually done after about 6 1/3. These are respectable numbers, but are they good enough for Josh Beckett’s understudy? Let’s look closer.

Among pitchers who’ve tossed at least 100 innings, Lester is third in MLB in strikeouts per nine innings at 10.24. His strikeouts-to-walks ratio ranks a decent 15th, right ahead of Josh Beckett, who is 16th. He could cut down on the free passes, but he’s not handing them out too generously.

What about batted balls? If he’s striking tons of guys out, and not walking too many, then any problems must be occurring when hitters make contact. But his groundball-to-flyball ratio is healthy, and his line drive percentage is actually down from 2008.

So where’s the problem? If Lester’s peripheral numbers are ace-like, why aren’t his record and ERA, too? One culprit is his BABIP — batting average on balls in play. A pitcher has almost no control over his BABIP (given normal groundball-to-flyball rates). The average BABIP is about .290, meaning that a batted ball has a 29 percent chance of falling in for a hit. Lester’s BABIP is .342, the highest of any AL starter. Part of that is just bad luck, and part of it is Boston’s defense, which ranks 28th in defensive efficiency, the rate at which balls in play are converted into outs by a team’s fielders.

But even in low-scoring games, and even with a shoddy defense behind him, one could argue that a true ace (or a good No. 2) ought to stay in the game long enough to get the win — not leave the final eight outs for the bullpen to handle. While Sox fans everywhere would love to see Lester stay through the eighth, Lester's average innings per start still puts him in the top 20 of AL starters — perfectly acceptable for a No. 2.

The real question is this: Does another team have a better 1-2 punch than Beckett and Lester?

Answer: No. According to WAR (wins above replacement, a useful metric that separates a pitcher’s value from factors he can’t control, like run support or team defense), Boston is the only team in the major leagues with two pitchers in the top 10. And there, Lester is even a hair ahead of Beckett.

So why aren't they winning more games? Because the Red Sox need to work on their fielding.