Pitchers’ woes just one of game’s oddities

 

Sarah Green

 

So the Cardinals say John Smoltz was tipping his pitches during his time in Boston? I don’t buy it. Yes, the future Hall of Famer’s 8.32 ERA with the Red Sox was bad. But ERA is a woefully inadequate statistic and as such, reader, it’s beneath us. Let’s take a closer look.

At 7.4, his strikeouts-per-nine innings wasn’t as high as it had been in some previous seasons — but it was still better than it was in 2005, when he was an All-Star. At 1.8, his walks-per-nine ratio was lower than it had been in recent years. His ground ball-to-fly ball ratio was in line with his career norms, and his line drive percentage was even a hair lower. If Smoltz had been tipping, these numbers would have shown him pitching poorly. Instead, they were OK.

But the home runs — those are what did it. Smoltz gave up eight homers in 40 innings of work for the Red Sox, for a monstrous clip of 1.8 per nine innings. And indeed, the batted ball seemed to be a problem for the veteran; his hits-per-nine ratio was 13.3, which inflated his WHIP to 1.70.  

And let’s not forget our trusty standby BABIP (batting average on balls in play). Remember that a pitcher has almost no control over his BABIP, and remember that the average BABIP is .290.

Smoltz’s BABIP with Boston: .386, almost 100 points higher than the average. Another measure of luck (or the lack of it) is a pitcher’s homer-to-fly ball ratio, and here, too, we see Smoltz suffering from bad luck with Boston with 10.8 percent of fly balls leaving the yard.

Again, too, I must mention Boston’s abysmal defense. It’s not surprising that Smoltz — and the recently departed Brad Penny — would be better on a team with a better defense. To pick on one guy, look at Jason Bay. He’s created 24.4 runs with his bat — but he’s given back 17.8 runs with his glove. A defenseless outfield is especially problematic for Penny, a flyball pitcher. Indeed, Penny’s fielding-independent ERA was acceptable at 4.48. That his actual ERA was 5.61 just shows how little help Sox hurlers have gotten from their defense this year.

We can use the same logic to calm our fears about Josh Beckett. His HR/9 ratio is still in line with his career norms, despite having an elevated HR/FB ratio — and despite giving up those five dingers in his last outing. And if you can look past the home runs, that outing wasn’t that bad: He struck out five, walked none and scattered nine total hits over eight innings.

Baseball is weird. That’s why they play 162 games — to even out the weirdness.