Published 20:05, October the 18th, 2009
Re-signing Bay not the best option
The premature exit of the Boston Red Sox from the postseason has prompted more than a bit of soul-searching about what went wrong — and how to fix it for 2010.
And yet so far, our collective brooding seems not to have generated particularly inspiring results.
Most of the focus has been on offense; perhaps since Boston’s bats were effectively neutered by Angels’ pitching in Games 1 and 2 of the ALDS, or perhaps because Boston won the World Series in 2004 and ’07 with Manny Ramirez in the lineup. Because of the focus on offense — and because he’s a likeable player we’ve come to know — there’s a strong feeling that the answer to Boston’s problems is re-signing Jason Bay. I couldn’t disagree more.
On defense, Bay was the second-worst left fielder in baseball last year. According to Ultimate Zone Rating, he was only slightly better than the execrable Ryan Braun. And Braun is 26, cheap, and offers the kind of bat that more than makes up for his glove.
Bay is 31, has a bat that barely counterbalances his fielding, and is a free agent. Because the market overvalues power hitting and undervalues defense, he’s likely to command a high salary, a lengthy contract — or both. And as the excellent blog USS Mariner recently demonstrated, Bay’s “classic old player skills” make him “eerily reminiscent” of Richie Sexson, a slugger who flamed out not long after inking a big-money deal with Seattle at age 29.
If the Red Sox are going to pay a premium for a left fielder, how about Matt Holliday? He’s a year younger — 30 — and his defense is (usually) an asset, rather than a liability. Looking at WARP, he was the most valuable left fielder in baseball last year.
He’ll be expensive, but the Red Sox have deep pockets — and after 2010, the team should shed a lot of payroll. More importantly, adding Holliday would help solve Boston’s most pressing problem: defense. And it would do so while improving their offense.
Boston is an aging team. I don’t think the same roster, slightly older, can win next year after not forcing an extra game in the playoffs this time around. Holliday is the kind of player that could not only help them win next season, but several more seasons to come. Jason Bay is not.
– Sarah Green also writes for UmpBump.com. She can be reached at sarah@umpbump.com.
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