trade ‘pap’ while his price is high
While the postseason continues, Boston has already moved on to the post-postseason.
Earlier this week, I argued that the Red Sox should sign Matt Holliday to play left field rather than re-sign the defensively deficient Jason Bay. This week, I’m urging Theo Epstein to part ways with another popular player: Jonathan Papelbon.
Why would the Sox want to trade a pitcher with a 1.84 career ERA who is under team control for two more seasons? It has nothing to do with his blown save in Game 3. It’s because of these three facts:
Fact 1: “Closing” is a fad. At some point, every team will figure that out. But until they do, they will overvalue closers. Smart teams send in their best reliever in the highest leverage situations — when the bases are loaded or the 3-4-5 hitters are due — regardless of the inning. Yet the majority of teams still obsess over the ninth.
Fact 2: Pap’s peripheral stats hint at decline. His walk rate tripled last year. His home run and line drive rates also rose, while the rate at which opposing hitters chased his pitches fell. And while in ’06 and ’07 he held opposing hitters to averages of .172 and .154, in ’08 and ’09, those figures rose to .229 and .220. Even though his velocity is unchanged, his fastball has not been as effective.
Fact 3: He won’t sign with Boston as a free agent. Papelbon wants to test the market, and the Red Sox are too smart to pay his market price; I see it as near certain that he’ll be leaving for the highest bidder (cough ... Yankees ... cough). The market values team control, even though Pap’s arbitration years will be expensive. The Sox should shop him while they can get something in return, and he may never have more trade value than he does now.
The Sox could try to work with Papelbon to revive his secondary pitches. They could try to bring his walk rate back down. And there’s no guarantee Theo Epstein will find the right trading partner. I wouldn’t be upset if he did stay; he’s still excellent.
But when you consider the market conditions, the worrisome peripherals, and that what the Sox need is infield help and youth — their next wave of prospects is two to three years away — I think Pap has more value as trade bait than in the bullpen. But if the Red Sox want value in return, they need to shop him while his value is still high.
– Sarah Green also writes for UmpBump.com. She can be reached at sarah@umpbump.com.
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