Not Out Of The Woods Yet

You might think that the Patriots are in pretty good shape right now, sitting at 7-3, with a two-game lead in the AFC East. Tied for the second-best record in the AFC, some are dreaming of snapping up that coveted first-round bye for the playoffs.

Don't be fooled. The next two games are going to be tough. Very tough. Worst case scenario, they lose both, and lose the AFC East. Best case scenario, they win both, and those dreams of the first round bye become a little more realistic.

Last season at this time, the New York Jets sat at 7-3 after beating the Patriots in New England. The Patriots fell to 6-4 and the Dolphins also sat at 6-4. At the moment, Miami is 5-5 and traveling to Buffalo this Sunday, where they should win. That bump them up to 6-5. This Patriots game with New Orleans is going to be a tough one. As much as I hope they can win a shootout with the unbeaten Saints, I don't know if they can do it. A loss drops them to 7-4 and the following week's game in Miami would give the Dolphins the opportunity to tie the Patriots in the standings at 7-5.

Last year, The Jets scored their biggest win of the season when they went to Tennessee and knocked off the unbeaten Titans, who like the Saints, were at 10-0 coming in. The Jets moved to 8-3, and still found a way to finished behind both the Dolphins and Patriots. We can take comfort in knowing that the Patriots are not the Jets, and likely would not blow such a lead. but it can happen. The Dolphins, even with all their injuries, seem to be a typical Bill Parcells team in that they get better as the season goes on. Fortunately, this is also a trait of Bill Belichick teams.

Thus, Monday night's game in New Orleans is incredibly important for this Patriots team on a number of levels. They don't want to be in the position of playing for the division on December 6th in Miami. They need a win to keep the Dolphins at bay in the AFC East. They need to get a road win (apparently beating Tampa in London doesn't count), they need a "statement" victory to show their status as a true contender, or whether they are a notch below the top group, and they need a win to stay in the race for that first-round bye in the playoffs.

I've already said I don't know if the Patriots can win this game, but I'm clinging to a few items for hope. The Patriots offense is likely one of the few in the league that has the potential to match the New Orleans offense, score-for-score. They're going to need to put up points to have a chance in this one. The game against the Colts, if you take away the final two minutes, was actually very encouraging, as it showed that the Patriots are capable of taking on a contender on the road. They now need to finish off a contender on the road. The Patriots are 14-0 over the last four seasons when playing NFC teams. Their last loss to an NFC opponent was to the Carolina Panthers back in September of 2005. The Patriots, and particularly the defense, have something to prove, and may look at this as the game to do it. We can't blame the Saints for their schedule, they can only play the games they're scheduled for, and to their credit, they've been perfect thus far. But they haven't faced an offense the caliber of New England's. This will be a test for New Orleans, as well.

While the Patriots mantra is "one game at a time," it is especially true this week. 7-3 doesn't mean anything, all that matters is 1-0 this week.

Bruce Allen is the creator of Boston Sports Media Watch, which has recently been recognized by SI.com as one of the best non-corporate sports web site's on the Internet