After delivering a heroic performance in Game 5, Kevin Durant will look to lead the Nets into the Eastern Conference Finals with a series-clinching victory in Milwaukee tonight.
Let’s take a look at this Game 6 matchup between Milwaukee and Brooklyn with a deep dive into our best Bucks vs. Nets prop pick.
Despite his efforts, oddsmakers have the Nets as a substantial 6-point underdog ahead of this one. The Bucks look to make it a perfect three-for-three on their home court in this series against the Nets.
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Nets vs. Bucks Game 6 Player Prop Pick
Milwaukee Bucks Win First Half and Game (-122 odds)
This prop bet allows us to take a Bucks moneyline for the game, which is in the area of -220 to -240, and shrink it down to -122. Of course, there’s the added caveat that Milwaukee must also win the first half. We believe this is a reasonable ask and are happy to pay the smaller price.
The rationale behind Milwaukee winning the game itself is rather simple. There’s a dominant home team which is 30-10 on its own court this season. The Bucks also won both home games in their first round series with the Heat and both regular season home meetings against the Nets.
In fact, Milwaukee’s last home loss was a one-point overtime loss to the Suns back on April 19, nearly two months ago. Since then, the Bucks are on a 12-game home winning streak entering play this evening.
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A Repeat Performance Seems Unlikely
The Bucks are facing a shorthanded Nets team that is a just 21-19 away from home this season, including 1-3 in postseason play.
The Nets are still without Kyrie Irving and it’s hard to believe that James Harden will have a far bigger impact on tonight’s game than he did in Game 5. He lacked explosiveness in 46 minutes on a bad hamstring, collecting just five points on 1-10 shooting (including 0-8 from deep), six rebounds, and eight assists.
That leaves a cast of role players and Kevin Durant to try to pull off a similar miracle to the one that occurred in Game 5.
It’s hard to fathom the Bucks allowing lightning to strike twice, now being on their home court and catching Durant less than 48 hours from his 48-minute, 49-point performance that saw the ball in his hands almost every second that Brooklyn had possession.
Even a legend like Durant will have to show some ill effects tonight following such a Herculean effort, whether mentally or physically. It took every drop of his perfection to win Game 5, so it’s hard to think the Nets can also turn around on the road and steal Game 6. Expect the Bucks to have a game plan that is more effective at forcing the ball from Durant’s hands.
Brooklyn is just 15-12 on the road this season after a win, while the Bucks are 10-6 at home after a loss. Milwaukee should be able to extend this series against a tired Brooklyn bunch playing away from the comforts of home after such an emotional win.
Bucks Start Fast
Regarding Milwaukee grabbing the lead by halftime, there is some solid support to play this prop. The Bucks, when they are going well, tend to be a fast-starting team, especially at home. Since the embarrassing Game 2 loss, Milwaukee has led at the half in each of the last three games, including each of the two games on this court.
Milwaukee also led at the half in both home wins against the Heat in the opening round, as well as in both regular-season home wins against the Nets.
Now it’s time for the most compelling argument you will hear all day — the Bucks did not trail at the half in any of their final 20 regular-season wins, 11 of which were here at home. Most mind-blowing, however, is the fact that Milwaukee did not trail at halftime in a single home win during the regular season. That’s 26 home wins, folks, and if that’s not grounds for trusting this team to do the same tonight, then what is?
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