Bet Smart: AAF Week 2 recap - Metro US

Bet Smart: AAF Week 2 recap

Atlanta Legends at San Diego Fleet
SAN DIEGO, CA - FEBRUARY 17: San Diego Fleet running back Ja'Quan Gardner (32) runs with the ball during a AAF football game between the Atlanta Legends and the San Diego Fleet on February 17, 2019, at SDCCU Stadium in San Diego, CA. (Photo by Justin Fine/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Atlanta Legends at San Diego Fleet. Getty Images

Week 2 of action in the Alliance of American Football brought more clarity about overall team quality, and further highlighted the difficulties that poorly prepared offenses would have moving the ball.

If you’re betting Week Three AAF Saturday and Sunday, be sure you dig beyond recent final scores to look at key game stats (available at noextrapoints.com). You don’t want to bet on underdogs just because “the line seems a little high” or try to anticipate “when Overs are going to start hitting.” Six of eight games have stayed Under so far. Overs won’t start hitting until more offenses can move the ball!

A quick recap from last week…

*Birmingham (-7.5) only beat Salt Lake 12-9, losing total yardage 256-216 and yards-per-play 3.9 to 3.4. It took a fumble return TD to steal the outright victory. Birmingham only has one scoring drive longer than 60 yards this season, and that was for a field goal.

*Arizona (-16) only beat Memphis 20-18, but dominated yardage 383-236 and yards-per-play 6.4 to 3.5. The market was right about who the clearly superior team was…but multiple turnovers from the road favorite kept the score closer than it should have been. You should still have Arizona near the top of the league in your rankings. The Memphis offense is virtually helpless trying to drive the field with Christian Hackenberg at quarterback under defensive-minded head coach Mike Singletary.

*Orlando (-5) won at San Antonio 37-29 in the most entertaining game of the week. Orlando looks to be the class of the league, winning yardage here 428-398 and yards-per-play 8.4 to 5.1. San Antonio is the best AAF team at moving the chains, converting 12 of 19 third down after 9 of 18 in its opener.

*San Diego (-9) beat Atlanta 24-12, winning total yardage 313-222 on 4.5 to 4.2 yards-per-play. Huge game on the ground for the home favorite, which might mean trouble vs. better rush defenses.

Early soft estimates were that the league would center around 54 total points per game because of rules designed to create scoring and back-and-forth excitement. That soon dropped to the mid 40’s. The low-to-high scoring line thus far is only 21-21-26-36-38-46-60-66, with midpoints still in the 30’s.

Last week’s passing totals, low-to-high, were a dismal 61-105-128-140-169-175-223-362. Thank goodness for Garrett Gilbert! Games won’t be going Over until more quarterbacks reach 200 passing yards more consistently.

Sample size issues make season-to-date team stats tough to trust. But, it’s already clear that Orlando and Arizona are top championship threats, while Memphis and Atlanta are way behind the field. San Antonio (may be strong when not playing Orlando), Birmingham (great defense, struggling offense), San Diego (poor pass offense) and Salt Lake (ugly stats, but in two road games), still have to sort themselves out.

This week’s matchups: Arizona at Salt Lake (B/R Live, Saturday 3 p.m.), Memphis at Orlando (NFL Network, Saturday 8 p.m.), Birmingham at Atlanta (CBS Sports Network, Sunday 4 p.m.), and San Diego at San Diego (NFL Network, Sunday 8 p.m.)


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