The Arctic air has retreated for now, but as Arnold Schwarzenegger would say "I'll be back."
In the meantime we have been in the defrost mode as it was much needed after the brutal Arctic assault last week. Milder temperatures will remain with us for most of this work week, but at the same time a very powerful and massive winter storm will play a role in the weather across the entire eastern half of the nation, Gulf states, and Mid-west.
On the western flank heavy wind driven snow, in the south and southeast look for severe storms with tornado outbreaks and here in the Northeast windswept heavy rains.
The heaviest rain for us will take place Wednesday afternoon, Wednesday night and continue into Thursday morning across Southern New England. Flooding problems will become widespread across much of the Northeast by Wednesday night with plenty of local street and highway flooding, and flash flooding of streams and creeks seems likely at this time.
Frigid air waiting in the wings Feb.27-28.
The next Arctic blast is due to arrive for the last weekend of February, with this up coming Sunday featuring bitter wind chills that will drop the thermometer below zero. After that, long range computer models are hinting at possible coastal storm development during the first week of March with heavy rain and snow potential. It's early in the weather ball-game and we will see if the March lion will roar or just fiction by the long range computer models.
Food for thought
Looking into that first weekend of March, we need two key ingredients to be in place for East coast snow threat.
#1 Arctic oscillation needs to be in the negative phase. ( It should be strongly negative)
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#2 North Atlantic oscillation needs to be in the negative phase. ( It looks to be positive)
So mixed signals leads to a lower chance of a significant Northeast snow event.
The rain has moved off the coast and we are looking at a return to sunshine for your Monday along with temperatures flirting with 50 degrees.
A massive and powerful storm system will start to move in during the day on Tuesday, some of our North and West suburbs could see some sleet and snow at the start. On Wednesday windswept heavy rains will spread across the entire region with the heaviest rain falling later in the day Wednesday into Wednesday evening. Flash flooding is possible along with plenty of local street and highway flooding.
We dry out and cool down for Thursday and Friday. with Arctic air returning this weekend.
Storm threat for early next week.
New York City
Off to a great start for your Monday with plenty of sunshine and temperatures mainly in the 40's.
On Tuesday we should see some light rain arriving later in the day on Tuesday, it could start as some sleet and snow across our Northern and Western suburbs. A massive and powerful storm system begins to move here on Wednesday, we will be on the eastern flank so we will be dealing with heavy windswept rains from later Wednesday through Wednesday night. Street and highway flooding along with with stream and creek flash flooding is a strong possibility.
We dry out and cool down for Thursday and Friday.
This weekend the return of the polar blast with coldest of the air to arrive Saturday night into Sunday with wind chills dropping below zero.
Storm threat for early next week.
Looking dry for your Monday and right through Tuesday with temperatures turning a bit cooler. A massive and intense storm will approach during the day on Wednesday, but luckily for us (unless you are a snow lover) we will be on the eastern flank meaning all rain with the exception of a brief start of some sleet and snow in the hills to the North and West upon arrival on Wednesday.
Windswept heavy rains on tap for Wednesday night into Thursday morning, which will lead to plenty of local street and highway flooding and flash flooding of streams and creeks can't be ruled out at this time.
Arctic punch arrives this weekend as wind chills dip below the goose egg by Saturday night into Sunday morning.
Watching for potential east coast storm threat for early next week.