Canadians can look forward to a sustained period of strong growth in the next decade, but one that will be different from the rise that came a cropper in the last, says a new report.
Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce economists say the next decade will bring major fundamental changes to the world economy, and a bit of déjà vu for Canada, with the return of Western power, a high-flying loonie and surging stock values.
The major change is that Canada’s economy will be less dependent on consumers or the United States, says the report written by economists Avery Shenfeld and Benjamin Tal.
Overall, it’s a rosy picture of a decade that begins slowly next year but picks up steam on global growth and surging consumer demand in newly-rich emerging economies like China and India, as well as oil-rich countries from the OPEC nations and Russia.
Canada’s economy will get a boost from exports, particularly commodities, whose prices will get back some of their lustre as demand in emerging markets grows.
One sector that won’t bounce back as strongly is housing. The report sees housing starts averaging a tame 170,000 in the next decade, after being above 200,000 for most of the current decade.