Even with 10 nominees, it’s come down to a race between two films. “The Social Network” bloomed early, snatching up a number of critics’ awards and the Golden Globe, but “The King’s Speech” has been on a roll. The Academy will likely split for this one, with the older voters going for the traditional “The King’s Speech.” But our money’s on “The Social Network” taking the prize.
This is “The King’s Speech” star Colin Firth’s year, and no other nominee has the momentum he’s built up.
Best Supporting Actor: Geoffrey Rush has scored a few wins for his role in “The King’s Speech,” but it’s Christian Bale as a crackhead in “The Fighter” who’s going to win it.
No one is going to bet against Natalie Portman in this category, considering she’s swept all the other awards for “Black Swan.”
Best Supporting Actress: Here lies this year’s true guessing game. The only nominee close to being considered a front-runner, Melissa Leo (“The Fighter”), has been handicapped by her own self-financed publicity campaign, of which Hollywood disapproved. Helena Bonham Carter could snatch it up for her turn in “The King’s Speech.”
Other awards ...
» Best Director: In a perfect world, Darren Aronofsky would be awarded “Best Director” for “Black Swan,” but his style might be too far left field for Academy voters who favor David Fincher for “The Social Network.”
» Best Original Screenplay: Shut out of the Best Director category, expect Christopher Nolan to bring home this as a consolation prize for “Inception.”
» Best Adapted Screenplay: Aaron Sorkin will win for “The Social Network.” It’s not even a question. If Sorkin looks surprised at the podium, it’s an act.
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