The best bets for NFL Week 4.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears (-3)
“Fitzmagic” was at least temporarily halted on Monday night, as Ryan Fitzpatrick’s three first-half INTs paved the way for a Bucs loss. Tampa is still piling on the passing yards, ranking first in the NFL, but Khalil Mack and the Bears defense should be able to disrupt Fitzpatrick’s rhythm. Chicago’s stoppers have already recorded five INTs and forced seven fumbles in 2018. They also lead the league in sacks at 14.
The Bears’ offense won’t “wow” anyone, but Mitchell Trubisky protects the ball well and lets running backs Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen do the heavy lifting. The Bucs’ pass defense is the worst unit in the league by YPG, so Trubisky should be able to exploit that when the need arises.
The Bears have been a good bet lately, covering in four of their last five overall. At Solider Field, they’re 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 contests.
The pick: Bears -3
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Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (-1)
The Texans have been incinerating money dating back to last season, dropping their last eight ATS as well as straight-up. Now they’ll travel to their personal house of horrors, Lucas Oil Stadium, where Houston is 2-14 all-time.
DeShaun Watson hasn’t looked comfortable in his sophomore year, and he’ll face a Colts pass rush that’s been ravaging opponents through three games (10 sacks). Indy’s defense as a whole has improved significantly, rating 14th in PPG allowed.
Andrew Luck has been progressing steadily, and nearly led his team to their second straight road upset in Philadelphia last week. The Colts have been rewarding their backers handsomely of late, covering in four of their last five contests. Expect this trend to continue on Sunday.
The pick: Colts -1
San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Chargers (-10.5)
With Jimmy Garoppolo done for the year with a torn ACL, San Fran is forced to turn back to C.J. Beathard under center. His 69.2 rating in seven games in 2017 speaks for itself. In Beathard’s five starts last year, the 49ers were 1-4 ATS.
The Chargers are getting some serious class relief. Their two losses this season were at the hand of the Chiefs and Rams, currently two of the top dogs in the NFL. Their win and cover in Buffalo two weeks ago looks better now after the Bills demolished the Vikings last week.
L.A.’s offense is top-10 in just about every meaningful category. Philip Rivers has been picking defenses apart, completing nearly 70 percent of his passes, while Melvin Gordon is averaging over 100 all-purpose YPG. The 49ers’ stoppers have been a liability this year, ranking 28th in PPG allowed.
The Chargers have been a solid bet dating back to last season, going 10-5 ATS in their last 15 games. They’re worth siding with once more, even at this steep number.
The pick: Chargers -10.5
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