Selling low is usually a really bad idea in any kind of investment venture. We will typically show a better return by surviving the bad times and waiting for things to positively progress toward the mean.
But in fantasy football, we don’t have a lot of time. Most “regular seasons” are 13 weeks, meaning we need to start getting wins and we need them now. These big names are unlikely to turn their seasons around:
NOT SO EASY BREESY
Drew Brees was in trouble long before his rotator cuff got bruised. The Saints made it clear this offseason they wanted to change their style, dumping Jimmy Graham and Kenny Stills while investing heavily in the running game and the offensive line. Brees’ skills are diminishing and when he drops back, he’s looking at a 5-foot-10 No. 1 WR in Brandin Cooks, Brandon Coleman, Ben Watson and a broken down Marques Colston. Even when Brees’ shoulder gets right, owners are betting off streaming at the quarterback position.
WE’RE GOING TO CUT OFF YOUR JOHNSON
Andre Johnson was a Texans legend, arguably the greatest player in the history of the franchise. After last season, they simply washed their hands of him despite having one of the thinnest WR depth charts in the league. The Colts are finding out why now as Johnson is moving like a lumbering tight end instead of an elite receiver. Unable to separate, he’s been leaped by Donte Moncrief for the No. 2 wideout job. Andrew Luck has a 7.4 rating when throwing at the 34-year-old, something he’s done18 times. Johnson is a bench hold in deeper leagues at the very best.
BEASTING INTO THE WALL
There’s still plenty of value on the trade market for Marshawn Lynch and owners would do well to explore it. We can’t say for sure that he’s hit the wall, but we’ve seen this scene too many times before. A 29-year-old running back with at least 280 carries in four straight seasons can’t get over hamstring, calf and back issues. When on the field, he becomes increasingly touchdown-dependent. Meanwhile, the team has new and exciting options in Graham and Tyler Lockett. Lynch is worth moving for 80 cents on the dollar.
PICKUPS OF THE WEEK
1. Karlos Williams, RB, Bills – LeSean McCoy’s hamstring injury is proving more serious than anticipated. Williams is outplaying him anyway.
2. Antonio Gates, TE, Chargers – The suspension will be over after this week. Make sure Gates isn’t floating on your wire.
3. Ty Montgomery, WR, Packers – Jordy Nelson is out for the year and Davante Adams has a high-ankle sprain. Montgomery played on 85.7 percent of the snaps Monday.
Fire up these borderline wideouts in Week 4:
1. Pierre Garcon vs. PHL – The Eagles aren’t close to figuring out how to fix their broken secondary. Garcon will get fed.
2. Amari Cooper at CHI – The rookie is going to destroy Alan Ball and the Bears in his true breakout performance.
3. Allen Hurns at IND – Vontae Davis will likely be focused on Allen Robinson, leaving Hurns to do work on Jalil Brown and friends.
The Steelers had one of the most talented and effective offenses in the league. Then they lost Ben Roethlisberger for 4-6 weeks to a knee injury. Things are going to look very, very different with a 35-year-old Michael Vick at the controls. Vick will be placed in a game-manager kind of role, similar to the one in which he averaged just 134.6 yards passing and 20.3 yards rushing in three starts for the Jets last year. We have to downgrade Antonio Brown significantly, but Le’Veon Bell should hold steady thanks to massive volume. He got 26 touches in his first game off suspension in Week 3 and will push for 30 while Ben is sidelined.