NFL best bets, odds, lines (pro football Week 13)

A look at the best bets and odds for Week 13 in the 2015 NFL season:

Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2)

The Falcons got off to a flying start this year before losing four in a row, but there’s reason to believe they will right the ship this week against the Buccaneers. For starters, sensational RB Davonta Freeman is expected to return after missing last week’s contest against the Vikings. He’ll only add to an Atlanta offense that amassed nearly 500 yards against the shoddy Tampa Bay stoppers when they met on Nov. 1. The main reason the Falcons lost that game is they turned the ball over four times. The Falcons are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as road underdogs, facing a Buccaneers squad that’s 1-4 ATS as home favorites in their last five opportunities. Once the Falcons sturdy rush defense stifles Doug Martin, the mistake-prone Jameis Winston will be forced to duel with Matt Ryan, and that spells doom for the Bucs.

The pick: Falcons +2

New York Jets (-2) at New York Giants

The Jets have frequently been referred to as the Giants’ “little brothers,” and with playoff implications on the line they’ll certainly want to stick it to their co-tenants at Metlife Stadium, whom they haven’t beaten since 1993. The Giants have won the last five regular season matchups between these two teams, but they haven’t faced off in an official game since 2011. Momentum is on the Jets’ side coming into this tilt, as they routed their division-rival Dolphins last Sunday while the Giants dropped a game and the NFC East lead to the Redskins. Time of possession will be a deciding factor in this game, and the Jets should be able to grind it out on the ground with Chris Ivory to keep Eli Manning and Odell Beckham Jr. on the sidelines. They’ll need that gameplan to work if Darrelle Revis (concussion) can’t play. The Jets offense is ranked a modest 14^thin YPG, but the Giants porous defense is dead last in YPG, which accounts for the Giants being ranked 28^th in time of possession per game (28:06). The Jets have kept better company all year long and though they stalled at the midpoint of this season, expect them to keep their playoff hopes alive with a narrow win over their hometown rivals.

The pick: Jets -2

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (-2.5)

The Jaguars beat the Titans just two weeks ago, yet they’ll be underdogs when they pay a visit to the Music City on Sunday. Jacksonville is no stranger to being a road underdog, and they are 6-3-1 ATS in that role in their last ten tries (though they are just 1-9 SU). They also won four straight ATS before dropping a close one with the Chargers last Sunday. The Jaguars have owned Tennessee of late, as they are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five meetings. The Titans have also trended very poorly at home, going 3-16-1 ATS in their last 20 games at LP Field. Expect Jaguars RB T.J. Yeldon to get a lot of carries as Jacksonville will try to avoid the Titans staunch pass defense and fearsome pass rushers (ranked 6^th and 4^th in their respective categories) and stay afloat in the battle for the AFC South.

The pick: Jaguars +2.5

Best of the rest (picks in bold)

Cincinnati Bengals (-9.5) at Cleveland Browns

Seattle Seahawks at Minnesota Vikings (E)

Houston Texans at Buffalo Bills (-3)

Arizona Cardinals (-5.5) at St. Louis Rams

San Francisco 49ers at Chicago Bears (-7)

Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins (-4)

Carolina Panthers (-7) at New Orleans Saints

Kansas City Chiefs (-3) at Oakland Raiders

Denver Broncos (-4) at San Diego Chargers

Philadelphia Eagles at New England Patriots (-10)