SEOUL (Reuters) - South Korea's central bank is seen taking a breather on Thursday and keeping rates untouched after it cut them to a record low in June, but is expected to resume easing in coming months, a Reuters poll found on Tuesday.
Twenty-eight of 29 analysts surveyed said the Bank of Korea would leave interest rates at 1.25 percent. One forecast a cut to 1.0 percent.
All but four of the 27 survey respondents who provided a forecast on future movements said the BOK would probably lower rates again soon.
The other four said rates would be left on hold until year-end or even later.
Most analysts said they expected the BOK to study the effects of its June rate cut as well as ongoing government efforts to have a supplementary budget ready for parliament by end-July.
"I see the BOK cutting in October at the latest to support the economy. The supplementary budget was big enough to curb Korea's economic slowdown, but is unlikely to stop it," said Shin Dong-soo, a fixed-income analyst at Eugene Investment & Securities.
Kim Ji-man, a fixed-income analyst at HMC Investment & Securities, said current economic conditions were not dire enough at present to warrant a back-to-back cut.
Late last month South Korea proposed a supplementary budget of around 10 trillion won ($8.44 billion), as it tackles Brexit fallout in financial markets, weak exports, and a corporate overhaul of the country's shipping and shipbuilding industries.
Given these onshore and offshore uncertainties, the Bank of Korea is expected to lower its GDP growth forecast from the current 2.8 percent in its quarterly revision this Thursday, but only marginally, survey respondents said.
Separately, the government has forecast growth at 2.8 percent this year.
Markets have been calmer in recent sessions compared with the days after the Brexit vote, and official data has shown Brexit had little effect on fund flows.
However, exports have had little respite and continued to decline in June - extending a falling streak that began in January last year.
Government officials early this month urged caution over the export outlook. They remain wary of Brexit's potential impact on world growth, although shipments fell by the slowest pace in a year in June.
Meanwhile, BOK Governor Lee Ju-yeol will be giving a second news conference on Thursday at 0500 GMT to explain why inflation is failing to reach the bank's inflation target of 2 percent.
(Reporting by Nataly Pak, Dahee Kim and Jeongeun Lee; Writing by Christine Kim; Editing by Eric Meijer)