Talk about a complete reversal, computer models just 48 hours ago were painting a beautiful send off to the summer season, with golden sun and low humidity.
At the same time a tropical disturbance was lurking just north of Cuba with an eye for the Central Gulf states. With no indication of making a u-turn, this disturbance has made a quick right hook with the Florida panhandle in its sights.
Yes, we knew the disturbance had the potential to deepen into a full-fledged hurricane and it looks like that has happened. Thursday afternoon, winds reached 73 mph, making the disturbance an official hurricane. It will strike most likely just east of Apalachicola late tonight.
By 7 a.m. Saturday Hermine will rocket to a position near coastal North Carolina, after that computer models split camps.
One camp keeps the storm moving to just off the Delaware coast by early Sunday morning. Meaning it's swath of heavy rains and strong winds will spread across coastal Southern New Jersey by late Saturday and spreading inland into Philadelphia. How far the rain moves inland will depend on how close the storm comes to the coast.
The storm then will slowly move Northeast and produce the possibilities of heavy rains and winds for Eastern Long Island and the Capes of New England, but this would take place on Sunday and Monday, meaning you sneak in a very nice Saturday from New York through Boston.
The other camp keeps Hermine significantly more off the coast of Virginia spinning rough surf, coastal flooding and keeping the heaviest rains off the coast or just grazing the coastline of New Jersey and Long Island, before slipping out to sea by Wednesday. This scenario would take place for late Saturday and Sunday, with its main impacts for Southern New Jersey and the Delaware beaches.
Meaning Southern New England would have most of its Labor Day weekend storm free.
Intensity of the storm will depend if it can re-gain some strength once Hermine re-emerges off the Mid-Atlantic coast. It's just a matter of semantics whether Hermine is a tropical storm or just one nasty Noreaster type, blowing up our holiday weekend.
Here’s the forecast for now:
Philadelphia, Southern New Jersey, and Delaware
Rain arrives Saturday night, could be a few tropical like showers arriving out ahead of the main banding.
Winds increase quickly by Saturday evening. Gusts by late Saturday night/Sunday morning along the shore points could exceed 45 mph.
The brunt of the storm could arrive Sunday with strong gusty winds, potential localized flooding and coastal flooding. Power outages can't be ruled out, but conditions should be improving on Monday.
New York/Long Island
Saturday looks great with sunshine, late clouds, breezy conditions and possible riptides.
On Sunday rain bands move in from east to west with Eastern Long Island and the twin forks possibly in for flood potential, with coastal flooding a certainty even if we get luck and the storm remains well east. Wind gusts along eastern Long Island at 45mph.
Monday: Rains, strong gusty winds continue, especially across eastern Long Island, with more coastal flooding and localized flooding.
On Tuesday conditions improve.
Boston and Capes
Friday and Saturday looking beautiful with a good amount of sun.
Sunday: Looking at bands of rain and gusty winds trying to work it's way from southeast towards the northeast, with the Capes first getting smacked with some rain and increasing winds.
The Brunt of the storm could hold off until Monday as Hermine will start to meander around starting on Sunday and at what point this takes place will play a huge role in how this significant weather will impact Southern New England. Expect coastal flooding, and wind gusts by sometime on Sunday or Monday of 40 mph.
In summary we have a fluid and extremely complex weather situation developing as we head into your holiday weekend. I would expect quite a few adjustments will be made and forecasts tweaked for the worst or for the better over the next 48 hours.
With all pure honesty forecasters will not have a handle on this until Friday evening, as computer model spreads will hopefully tighten up and not spread out.
Timing is everything. Hmm, guess you didn't want to hear that.