The unexpected slowdown of the global economy is ushering in the greatest test of the post-recession period, according to Export Development Canada’s (EDC) Autumn 2010 Global Export Forecast.

Many thought the sharp, six-month rebound that began a year ago signalled the recovery was in full swing. But the economy got very quiet midway through this year and recovery is still at least a year away, said EDC chief economist Peter Hall.

Export Development forecasts the global economy will grow by 4.2 per cent this year and 3.9 per cent in 2011.

In developed econ­omies, growth will reach 2.4 per cent in 2010 and 2.1 per cent in 2011.
Emerging markets will generally be weaker, growing by 5.9 per cent in 2011 after expanding by 6.4 per cent this year.

The global numbers at first don’t look bad, but mask a weakening of the economy, Hall said.

Growth for 2010 is largely ended, while the 2011 forecast is expected in the latter part of this year.