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Employing the best to predict the worst

In June last year, Simon Sole predicted that Georgia would start a war. In August, Georgia did.<p></p>

In June last year, Simon Sole predicted that Georgia would start a war. In August, Georgia did.

Sole, a former intelligence analyst, is the founder of Exclusive Analysis, a company that makes money predicting disasters.

“We’re not like intelligence agencies,” Sole tells Metro. “They have to prevent terrorist attacks. We just predict them.”

In 2005, Exclusive Analysis predicted that Islamists would attack British trains, killing about 50 people. Several months later, four British Islamists did, killing 51 people.

“We have some 1,200 people around the world who collect data on the next 9/11 and other events,” Sole tells Metro. “Our analysts in London analyze the data using a special software. But our key strength is that we have people from each region. In Africa we have Africans, not Brits or Americans.”

Exclusive Analysis’ customers are primarily companies in sectors like shipping, banking, oil and gas, aviation and mining. “We’re a private company”, explains Sole. “Cash keeps you fit.” But governments, too, use the firm’s services.

 
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