It would’ve meant a lot to the director of A Single Man to see Colin Firth beat out Jeff Bridges at Sunday’s Golden Globe Awards. Alas, it was not to be.
“Live by the buzz, die by the buzzsaw,” said fashion designer-turned-filmmaker Tom Ford. “I’ve been saying it all morning, but it’s true.”
While Firth may have heard that buzzsaw coming, it doesn’t mean he’ll go unnoticed by the time the Academy Awards roll around however. Even though the Hollywood Foreign Press Association (which hosts the Golden Globes) has often forecast future Oscar winners, it possibly may be less so clairvoyant this year.
“It’s tricky to call any of the precursor shows influences on the Oscars,” said Steve Pond, author of The Odds, an awards-based column on popular Hollywood industry website The Wrap.
“(The Golden Globe voters) don’t really have any critical credibility and they don’t have careers in the industry the way the Oscar voters do, so it’s a popular vote among this group that’s sort of lucked into having influence for a couple weeks each year because their TV show gets good ratings.”
By comparison, the Oscars, to be held March 7, are an industry-based award where members of the Academy can cast unpredictable votes.
“Most of the Oscar voters in the acting categories are actors of substantial achievement themselves, so they’re not going to vote for people just because they want to see them up there on the podium.”
Toss in the fact that the Oscars will feature ten best picture nominees this year, and the winner of the top prize only becomes less calculable.
Either way, with the passing of The Golden Globes, one cannot deny that the official Oscar race has begun. So one wonders, with weekly award shows tracking who’s getting the most hardware, what is the greatest predictor of Oscar wins?
“The Director’s Guild, The Producer’s Guild, The Screen Actor’s Guild,” said Pond. “Those guilds tell you how people who work in the industry are thinking.”
While that’s promising news for Firth, Tom Ford admits he is one person just satisfied to see his star nominated.
“Awards recognition drives people to the theatre,” said Ford.