Paul Manafort and Michael Cohen — a political one-two punch for the ages. On Tuesday, President Trump’s former campaign manager Manafort was convicted on eight felony charges. Within hours, Cohen, Trump’s personal lawyer/fixer, pleaded guilty to several of his own, directly implicating the president in a campaign finance violation. Both resulted from special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation into Russia’s relationship with the Trump campaign. Manafort’s potential next steps are clear. But Cohen’s next move, and the circumstances behind his first, are more mysterious.
Last weekend, reports indicated that investigators were eyeing up to $20 million in bank fraud committed by Cohen. But Tuesday’s shakeout had experienced federal prosecutors scratching their heads: Cohen appeared before a Manhattan judge, saying he would plead guilty to five counts including bank fraud, tax evasion and campaign finance violations. He read from a prepared statement, saying he had paid hush money to influence the 2016 election “in coordination and at the direction of a candidate for federal office” (clearly Trump).
But although many legal analysts had predicted that Cohen, faced with decades in prison because of the campaign violation and tax evasion from his personal taxi business, would flip on Trump and cooperate with Mueller’s investigation, there was no mention of a plea deal or a cooperation agreement in Tuesday’s appearance.
So what now for Cohen?
Cohen could still cooperate with Mueller. Although unorthodox, the absence of a cooperation agreement doesn’t mean Michael Cohen won’t — or isn’t — cooperating with Mueller’s investigation. On MSNBC Tuesday night, former federal prosecutor Chuck Rosenberg theorized that Mueller’s team could have orchestrated Cohen’s admission as a “placeholder” before going underground until after the midterm elections. While keeping its moves discreet to avoid influencing those races, Mueller’s team could then formalize a cooperation agreement with Cohen. (Cohen was technically charged by the Southern District of New York, not Mueller, but the two jurisdictions work hand-in-hand.)
He likely won’t accept a pardon from Trump. One of Michael Cohen’s attorneys, Lanny Davis, said he would decline a get-out-of-jail-free card. “His answer would be no, I do not want a pardon from this man,” said Davis on CNN this morning. “Under no circumstances, since he came to the judgment after Mr. Trump’s election to the presidency of the United States that his suitability is a serious risk to our country. And certainly after Helsinki, creates serious questions about his loyalty to our country.”
He could get 65 years in prison. As things stand right now, Cohen’s guilty pleas carry that maximum penalty. Because Cohen has made those pleas, there will be no trial. The judge named Dec. 12 as Cohen’s sentencing date and set $500,000 bond. But any cooperation agreement could include prosecutors’ request for a lighter sentence.
