More than half of Americans think President Trump won't be re-elected in 2020, a new poll shows. But President Obama faced the same numbers at an equivalent point in his presidency.

In the CNN survey, 54 percent of respondents said they thought voters would give Trump the boot after his first time. The same percentage said that about Obama in 2010. Only 40 percent of Americans said they thought Trump would be re-elected. Obama did a bit better there, but not much: 44 percent gave him the thumbs-up. But Obama's overall approval ratings were significantly higher at this point in his presidency.

Unsurprisingly, Republicans overwhelmingly believe Trump will be re-elected (79 percent). Democrats overwhelmingly believe he won't (87 percent). But in a potentially worrying sign for Republicans, a majority of independents think Trump will lose.

With Trump's approval numbers hoving in the mid-30s for much of his first year, there has been significant speculation that Trump will face a primary challenge for the 2020 Republican nomination. Ohio Governor John Kasich and current Utah Senate candidate Mitt Romney have been mentioned as possibilities. But in the CNN poll, 75 percent of Republicans said they thought Trump should get the nomination; 20 percent said he didn't. And no other contender got more than 1 percent of the vote.


Trump's approval ratings have been rising in the last few weeks. A different CNN poll on Tuesday showed that 42 percent of Americans how approve of the job he's doing, the highest number in 11 months. The FiveThirtyEight average of polls shows that 41% of voters approve of Trump — but that's still the lowest percentage since Harry Truman, who had 44% approval in 1946. President Obama had 48 percent approval at this point in his presidency.

In terms of the Democrats' 2020 prospects, former Vice President Joe Biden leads the field of potential nominees with the most support. Eighty-four percent of Democrats and those leaning Democratic said they were likely support a Biden bid. The next most supported candidates were Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA); 75 percent and 68 percent of respondents said they were likely to back them.

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