Make the robe, order the congratulatory cupcakes, and call the photographer for a new class portrait: Brett Kavanaugh is going to be the next Supreme Court Justice. At least, that is the widespread wisdom among D.C. pundits. Despite all the anger and disbelief of Democrats, the raging headlines, and frustration among women’s rights advocates, the vote to confirm him is still considered a likely bet.
Now you may be among the many asking, “How can this be?” You’ve heard the accusations against him. You’ve watched the frothy debates about his guilt or innocence. You perhaps believe a full-fledged FBI investigation is warranted.
What’s more, we haven’t even heard the chief accuser on the record and under oath. Christine Blasey Ford is scheduled to face the Senate Judiciary Committee this Thursday to expand upon her claims that Kavanaugh pinned her to a bed and tried to remove her clothes at a drunken party in high school. So again, with so much outstanding, how can his confirmation seem so probable? Three reasons.
1 Despite widespread support for the #MeToo movement, it has come along at the exact same time that we have a president, Donald Trump, who stands accused of a good many sexual improprieties…yet has a fiercely loyal base of supporters ready to punish anyone who gets in his way. And he wants Kavanaugh on the court.
2 The most pointed accusation so far flows out of Kavanaugh’s high school years, opening the door – fairly or not – to the “we were all just crazy kids back then” defense. And he has flatly denied all accusations, so there is that.
3 Republicans have waited years to be in this position, and if they push Kavanaugh through they will probably have a conservative majority on the highest court in the land for the next 20 years. Period.
And as much as elected officials like to talk about principles, justice, fairness and so on, what really counts in this town when the chips are down is power. That’s why, despite all the wild cards on the table, the smart money is still on Kavanaugh.
