MetroBet takes a look at the best bets for NFL Week 12.
Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals (-3)
Moneyline: Browns +145, Bengals -165
Betting Total: 47 points
The first “Battle of Ohio” of the season has all the makings of a high-scoring shootout.
The Browns offense, led by Baker Mayfield, will have had an extra week to prepare for the Bengals’ porous defense that is at or near the bottom in just about every statistical category worth considering. Mayfield boasts a 9-2 TD-INT ratio over his last four games. And running back Nick Chubb has been a revelation since Carlos Hyde was dealt away; a 92-yard TD run against the Falcons last week only solidified that.
Meanwhile, Andy Dalton and his 12th-ranked scoring offense draw a soft matchup with Cleveland’s 26th-ranked defenders by points per game allowed. The Browns are also in the bottom third in passing yards and rushing yards allowed per contest. It would be a great boon if A.J. Green, Dalton’s top target, returns in this game as he’s expected to. He’s missed the last two weeks with a toe injury.
The betting trends point toward the Over in this one too. The Browns have exceeded the total in 13 of their last 20 games on the road, while the Bengals have gone Over in seven of their last 10 games overall. At home, Cincinnati’s Over record is 6-2-2 across their last 10 contests.
Prediction: Bengals win, 34-24
The play: Browns vs. Bengals Over 47 points
Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers (-3)
Moneyline: Seahawks +155, Panthers -175
Betting Total: 47.5 points
Two of the NFL’s most run-heavy offenses meet at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, setting the stage for a strong Under play.
Workhorse running back Chris Carson has carried the freight for the Seahawks for most of 2018, averaging 4.5 yards per carry on 128 attempts. And Rashaad Penny has been strong when called upon, averaging 4.8 yards per carry on 62 attempts. Seattle won’t just run wild over Carolina, as they have the NFL’s eighth-ranked run stoppers, but the Seahawks should be able to control the clock.
The Panthers also prefer to keep the ball on the ground with Christian McCaffrey (4.6 yards per carry on 136 attempts) and (to a waning extent) Cam Newton, who survived an injury scare last Sunday. Seattle’s defense has bent but hasn’t broken this year. Tossing aside their two games with the Rams, the Seahawks haven’t allowed over 27 points in a game this season.
With two evenly-matched teams potentially trying to play keep-away, the Under is the only logical play.
Prediction: Panthers win, 24-20
The play: Seahawks vs. Panthers Under 47.5 points