Here are the best NFL bets for Week 10 of the season.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (-3)
Jacksonville enters this divisional road game off a bye, where they’re 7-1 against the spread over the last eight seasons, but the Colts look like the better bet.
The Jaguars’ defense limps into this contest with multiple injuries in the secondary and their offense hasn’t topped 18 points in four straight games, leading to four consecutive losses straight-up and against the spread. It’s becoming readily apparent that Blake Bortles can’t carry an offense and that Leonard Fournette is more valuable out of the backfield than many thought.
Indy’s offense has gained a sense of balance since Marlon Mack became the regular running back. The Colts have rushed for over 200 yards in consecutive contests, both wins, taking some of the burden off Andrew Luck. Expect the Jaguars and their 24th-ranked run stoppers to be tested early and often on the ground in this one as Indy gets themselves out of the AFC South cellar.
The pick: Colts -3
New Orleans Saints (-5.5) at Cincinnati Bengals
The Saints have won seven straight since a puzzling Week 1 loss to the Buccaneers, but it seems unrealistic that they can keep up this level of play for much longer.
New Orleans has had a grueling slate of late, surviving a fourth-quarter scare against the Ravens before beating the Vikings in Minnesota and the Rams back at home. It’s probably not coincidental that the only time Drew Brees and company failed to score 30 or more points during the last six games was at Baltimore.
The Bengals are always a tough out at home and should deliver a peak effort off a bye, even without star wide out A.J. Green. Tyler Boyd, with 49 receptions on 66 targets in 2018, is talented enough to pick up the slack at least temporarily. The Saints’ pass stoppers, next-to-last in the league in yards allowed per game, are certainly capable of being exploited by Andy Dalton.
Cincinnati has covered in nine of their last 11 as home underdogs (per oddsshark.com), so grab the points with the Bengals this week.
The pick: Bengals +5.5
Miami Dolphins at Green Bay Packers (-10)
The Dolphins could not be coming to Green Bay at a better time for Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. They could really use a pick-me-up after back-to-back heartbreakers against the Rams and Patriots.
Miami has been a tale of two teams this season; they’re a solid 4-1 at home this year, but just 1-3 on the road. And their most recent home victory against the Jets was far from inspiring, as they managed just 168 yards of offense. The Dolphins will be fish out of water when they encounter the freezing-cold Wisconsin weather on Sunday.
Brock Osweiler can’t be counted on to match scores with Rodgers, as the two-time league MVP matches up with a Dolphins defense that is quickly descending into the bottom third in too many meaningful categories.
The 10-point cushion isn’t tempting at all, as Miami is 2-8 against the spread in their last 10 as road dogs of 7.5 or more points, including four failed covers in a row, per oddsshark.com.
The pick: Packers -10