In a suicide pool or pick ’em? Here’s our advice for Week 5:
Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins (-3.5)
The Titans have averaged just 15.5 PPG this year, but their offense ought to win them this game. A rejuvenated DeMarco Murray has averaged 85 yards rushing through four contests and will meet little resistance against Miami’s fourth-worst rush defense. Murray’s presence should also open things up downfield for Marcus Mariota, and though he tends to make mistakes (five picks in four games), the Dolphins only have one interception all year so he shouldn’t be afraid to take some chances through the air. TE Delanie Walker should have an impact as well, as Miami has allowed the eighth-most yards in the league to tight ends through four games. And while Tennessee’s offense has struggled at times this year, Ryan Tannehill and company haven’t fared much better, tallying just 17.8 PPG. Miami’s 2-8 ATS record over their past 10 home games just adds to the long list of reasons to take the Titans and the points. Tennessee is the best bet of the week.
The pick: Titans +3.5
Philadelphia Eagles (-3) at Detroit Lions
The Eagles return to the field off a bye week, which has been a great angle to capitalize on over an extended period of time (13-2 since 2000, and 2-1 since Andy Reid left town). Newly anointed head coach Doug Pederson and QB prodigy Carson Wentz are in good position to build on that postbye success this Sunday against the dreadful Lions. Detroit was held in check by the lowly Bears last week, scoring no offensive touchdowns, and figure to meet a similar fate against the Eagles’ suffocating defense (league-low 9.0 PPG allowed in three games). Though the venue changes for Detroit it doesn’t project to aid them, as the Lions are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home tilts. Philly has also trended favorably of late; they’re 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall and have the exact same record in their last five road contests.
The pick: Eagles -3
San Diego Chargers at Oakland Raiders (-3.5)
Incredibly, San Diego has blown three fourth-quarter leads in four games this year. Redemption doesn’t appear to be in the cards this week as the Chargers take their show back on the road; they’re 1-9 in their last 10 away games. The Raiders lackluster defense may have a tough time stopping Phillip Rivers and company, but Derek Carr should be able to torch the Chargers’ sixth-worst pass defense, especially if CB Brandon Flowers misses another game with a concussion. In what projects to be a shootout in the “Black Hole,” the home team clearly has the edge.
The pick: Raiders -3.5
Best of the rest (picks in bold)
Washington @ Baltimore Ravens (-4)
Chicago Bears @ Indianapolis Colts (-4.5)
New York Jets @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-7)
Houston Texans @ Minnesota Vikings (-6)
New England Patriots (-10) @ Cleveland Browns
Atlanta Falcons @ Denver Broncos (-6)
Buffalo Bills @ Los Angeles Rams (-2.5)
Cincinnati Bengals (-1) @ Dallas Cowboys
New York Giants @ Green Bay Packers (-7)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers [OFF]