MetroBet takes a look at a trio of games ahead of the Week 16 NFL slate.
Chicago Bears (-4) at San Francisco 49ers
Moneyline: Bears -200, 49ers +170
Betting Total: 43 points
The Bears just clinched their first NFC North title in a decade, but there’s still a first-round bye for them to play for, so they shouldn’t fall prey to a ‘letdown spot’ in San Francisco.
Chicago has been a great bet of late, going 7-1 in their last eight against the spread. Mitchell Trubisky bounced back nicely against Green Bay last week after a rough game against the Rams. He completed 20 of 28 passes for 235 yards, two TDs and no INTs. Trubisky should have little trouble attacking the 49ers’ soft defense (26th in points per game allowed).
Meanwhile, San Fran quarterback Nick Mullens could be in for a long day against Khalil Mack and company, as the Bears’ menacing pass rush meets one of the league’s worst offensive lines.
Prediction: Bears win, 23-13
The play: Bears -4
Pittsburgh Steelers at New Orleans Saints (-5.5)
Moneyline: Steelers +200, Saints -240
Betting Total: 53 points
The Saints’ offense has slowed down since hitting the road in Dallas three weeks ago, scoring just 50 total points in three contests, but a return home to the Superdome could be just what the doctor ordered.
New Orleans has averaged 38 points per game at home this year, where they are 5-1 straight-up and 4-2 against the spread. The Saints have been rewarding their backers regardless of locale lately, covering in 10 of their last 12 contests.
The Steelers’ defense specializes in stopping the run (sixth in the league), but Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram represent a formidable challenge for that unit. Pittsburgh’s pass stoppers have allowed an average of 285.7 yards per game over their last three contests, so Drew Brees should have a fairly easy time finding his targets in this one.
Pittsburgh simply isn’t as ‘buttoned-up’ as most of the elite teams in the league, like the Saints. They commit too many penalties and turnovers to trust entirely. And now they’re coming off an emotional win over the hated Patriots. Take New Orleans to get the job done at home.
Prediction: Saints win, 38-28
The play: Saints -5.5
Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5) at Seattle Seahawks
Moneyline: Chiefs -140, Seahawks +120
Betting Total: 53.5 points
The Chiefs exit a heartbreaking loss to the Chargers last Thursday night, and though they hit the road to play in Seattle’s CenturyLink Field, one of the most foreboding venues in the NFL, they look like the right side on Sunday night.
Kansas City has arguably been better as the visiting team this year, going 5-1-1 against the spread. They average over a field goal more per game on the road compared to their overall figure. That’s thanks in large part to the play of Patrick Mahomes, who has a 124.2 passer rating in road games compared to a 105.9 rating at home. Seattle’s defense is the definition of “bend but don’t break” this year, as they’re seventh in points per game allowed but 27th in yards per play allowed. Don’t expect an elite unit like that of the Chiefs’ to settle for field goals against these stoppers.
Russell Wilson and company should also put up their fair share of points against K.C.’s shoddy defense, but Mahomes has better personnel around him for a potential track meet.
Prediction: Chiefs win, 41-34
The play: Chiefs -2.5, Chiefs vs. Seahawks Over 53.5 points