MetroBet takes a glance at the betting odds and dishes out advice for three games on the Week 16 NFL slate.
New York Giants at Indianapolis Colts (-9)
Moneyline: Giants +380, Colts -475
Betting Total: 46.5 points
These clubs were on opposite ends of shutouts last week, as the Giants were frustrated on a rain-soaked Sunday by the Titans, while the Colts foiled the red-hot Cowboys. However, it’s important not to read into one week of results too closely. There are trends that indicate the Giants are worth a bet as sizeable underdogs this Sunday.
Per oddshark.com, teams that shut out an opponent the prior week are just 16-24-1 against the spread in the following game since 2011. New York has also covered in each of their last five road games.
The Giants are hopeful that Odell Beckham Jr. will return from a quad injury that’s cost him the last two games. If he does, that only strengthens the case for Saquon Barkley to have a bounce-back game after being held to just 31 yards last week.
Andrew Luck and company have averaged just 18.5 points per game over their last four contests, so covering this nearly double-digit spread seems like too tall an order.
Prediction: Colts win, 27-23
The play: Giants +9
Houston Texans at Philadelphia Eagles (-1)
Moneyline: Texans EVEN, Eagles -120
Betting Total: 45 points
In one of the wilder line movements of the season, the initial spread of Texans -3.5 was crushed down by bettors to Eagles -1 after Philly’s shocking victory over the Rams on Sunday night. The public seems to think lightning will strike twice with Nick Foles back under center, but Houston will be a tough out.
The Texans have won 10 of their last 11 games, the last of which Lamar Miller hardly played due to an ankle injury. His loss will be felt if he can’t suit up, but Deshaun Watson should still be able to gouge the Eagles’ woeful secondary that’s next-to-last in the NFL in yards per game allowed. DeAndre Hopkins is fresh off a 170-yard, two TD performance against the Jets.
Philly is tough to endorse at home this week, as they’ve dropped five of their last six against the spread.
Prediction: Texans win, 31-24
The play: Texans +1
Green Bay Packers at New York Jets (EVEN)
Betting Total: 44 points
The Packers are officially out of playoff contention, so there’s a chance that they decide to mail it in here, but it’s tough to take the Jets (losers of seven of their last eight) straight-up.
Aaron Rodgers thrived when he faced the Falcons and their non-threatening pass rush two weeks ago, and he’ll benefit from another friendly matchup against the Jets and their 19th-ranked pass rush. Green Bay lost Aaron Jones early on last week, but they still put up a good fight against a strong Bears team. They hope to have him at full strength on Sunday.
Sam Darnold has shown flashes of promise this year, but the lack of talent around him is inhibiting his progress. He doesn’t draw the easiest of matchups in the Packers’ ninth-rated pass stoppers.
Prediction: Packers win, 28-20
The play: Packers EVEN
Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (-13)
Moneyline: Bills +650, Patriots -1000
Betting Total: 45 points
New England has seldom lost in December in the Bill Belichick/Tom Brady era, but now they’ve lost two straight in the final month of the year. They should get back in the win column against the lowly Bills, but they may have some difficulty covering as massive favorites.
Buffalo’s offense has turned a corner since putting up single-digit scores in three straight games in late October into early November. One of those tilts was against the Patriots, in which Buffalo’s defense played exceptionally well and kept their team in the game until the very end (a recurring theme this season). Josh Allen has been much more effective under center since he’s decided to take off and run more often. His ability to scramble for yardage can make up for the shortage of running back personnel, as LeSean McCoy and Chris Ivory are still dealing with injuries and are uncertain to play on Sunday.
Expect the Bills’ top-rated pass defenders to keep Brady in check, which should result in a close, low-scoring game.
Prediction: Patriots win, 24-16
The play: Bills +13