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Trump impeachment odds jump after Mueller's first indictments

It hasn't been a good week for Donald Trump Jr. or Jared Kushner either.
Trump Impeachment Odds
Photo: Getty Images

Things are finally looking up for the president this week — at least in terms of Trump impeachment odds, online betmakers say.

On Monday, special counsel Robert Mueller delivered his first indictments as part of the investigation into Russian meddling in the 2016 presidential elections. Since then, odds that Trump will be removed from office early rose to 38 percent, according to Predict It, a real-money online prediction market. That's a one-week jump of five points.

Mueller indicted former Trump campaign manager Paul Manafort and Manafort's business associate Rick Gates, on numerous counts including conspiracy against the United States. It was also revealed that former campaign foreign-policy staffer George Papodopolous had pleaded guilty to lying to the FBI in October.

According to Predict It, the chances of Trump's impeachment before Jan. 1 went up two points, to six percent, and by the end of 2018 by four points, to 20 percent. The odds of Trump still being president by December 2019 are now just 57 percent — a six-point drop since Monday.

Other members of Trump's circle saw their odds of facing consequences rise as well. Donald Trump Jr.’s chances of facing a federal charge this year jumped 17 points on Predict It to 24 percent. Presidential son-in-law Jared Kushner's chances rose 11 points, to 21 percent. And former Trump foreign-policy adviser Carter Page's odds climbed to 27 percent after he gave a potentially incriminating interview to MSNBC's Chris Hayes on Monday night.

What does that mean for a real Trump impeachment?

But in the non-virtual world, impeachment of Trump remains unlikely as Republicans control both houses of Congress. Despite sharp criticism of Trump from a trio of Republican Senators — John McCain and Jeff Flake of Arizona and Bob Corker of Tennessee — in recent weeks, a more widespread intraparty uprising against Trump has failed to materialize.

Support for impeachment has flared at the fringes of Democrats in Congress, but Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi have tamped down talk of impeachment proceedings as premature while special counsel Robert Mueller continues his investigation.

 
 
 
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