MetroBet takes a look at a pair of NBA games on the Thursday slate.
Philadelphia 76ers at Oklahoma City Thunder (-4)
Two high-octane offenses will go at it at the Chesapeake Energy Center on Thursday night as the Philadelphia 76ers (39-22) pay a visit to the Oklahoma City Thunder (38-22). But with the absence of Joel Embiid clearly taking a toll on the Sixers (2-1 straight-up since the All-Star break but 0-3 against the spread), the Over isn’t as solid a play as a spread wager on the Thunder.
Oklahoma City is 0-3 against the spread since crossing the unofficial halfway point of the NBA season (1-2 straight-up), but their offense hasn’t suffered. The Thunder have averaged 125.3 points per game in their last three contests, including a 148-point outburst against the Jazz last Friday. Point guard Russell Westbrook has averaged 35.3 points per game since the break.
As the host team this year, Oklahoma City typically scores 1.5 additional points per game and allows nearly a point less per contest. Opponent assist-to-turnover ratio drops from 1.5 overall to 1.36 at Chesapeake Energy Center. Small forward Paul George is much more efficient at home too, as his three-point field goal percentage is 44.2, compared to 35.9 percent on the road.
Philadelphia is fortunate to be 15-14 away from home this year, as their point differential drops from an overall figure of plus-3.4 to minus-2.1 on the road. And that’s with Embiid playing in the bulk of those games.
The play: Thunder -4
Utah Jazz at Denver Nuggets (-7)
The home team has won 10 straight meetings between the Utah Jazz (33-26) and the Denver Nuggets (42-18), and a surging Denver team should continue that trend on Thursday night.
The Nuggets have won five straight contests, four coming at the Pepsi Center, while going 4-1 against the spread. Oddsmakers can’t seem to set a high enough line on Denver when they play in the Mile-High City, as they’ve covered 22 out of 31 times so far this season.
Center Nikola Jokic is fresh off a 36-point performance against the Thunder in which he was one rebound short of a triple-double, and power forward Paul Millsap has been a beast since being folded back into the lineup off a brief absence, recording four straight double-doubles. The Nuggets haven’t sacrificed anything on defense either, surrendering just 103.4 points per game over their last five tilts. Expect shooting guard Donovan Mitchell and company to struggle on offense in this one.
The play: Nuggets -7
